Japan Center for Economic Research
Last Updated Nov 26, 2015
What's New
Short-term Forecast New!

Summary of No.164 Quarterly Forecast [2015/10-12---2018/1-3] (25/Nov/15)

World Business Climate Index

September: China's climate returned from "rainy" to "stormy"--Climate for ASEAN also changed into "rainy" (16/November/15)

ESP Forecast

Real GDP for 2015Q3 Declines 2nd Quarter in a row--Weaker Outlook for Growth and Inflation (12/Nov/15)

The 22nd AEPR conference on "Connectivity and Infrastructure" was held in Tokyo in October, 2015. The conference was reported in the Nikkei Asian Review. The article is here. The working papers proposed are found here. (5/Nov/15)

Japanese Economy Update by Jun Saito

Will the Winter Bonus be a Savior?

JCER Seminar: Japan's Economic Prospects 2015

Can a Nation Survive with a Shrinking Population? Jun Saito (27/Oct/15)

JCER Staff Report

Alternative Estimates of China's GDP Deflator: 2015Q3 Update (28/Oct/15)
The estimates of China's GDP deflator and real GDP growth are updated based the July-September data.

China's True Growth Rate: Is It Really 7%? (15/Oct/15)
JCER's own estimates for the controversial China's GDP are different from the figures officially announced by the Chinese government. The GDP growth for April June may be 4.8-6.5%, not 7%. The coverage of the report by the Nikkei Asian Review is found here.

The article was carried in the Nikkei Asian Review website.

If US hikes its rate, will there be another Asian currency crisis? (21/Oct/15)

Asian Economy Forecast: China's Growth 6.8%, ASEAN4 4.4% for 2015

JCER revised its short-term forecast for China and four major Southeast Asian countries. Figures were changed downward from the previous ones reflecting the slowdown of the Chinese economy. The forecast was reported in the Nikkei Asian Review.

Medium Term Forecast

The 42nd Medium-Term Forecast for the Japanese Economy: FY2015-FY2030 (Baseline Scenario) (10/Sep/15)

Policy School by Heizo Takenaka

Parsing Japan's latest fiscal and economic blueprint

Asian Economic Forecasts: 2015-2025

JCER released its first Medium-Term Asian Economic Forecast for 2015-25. China's growth rate could fall to 4.1% by 2025 and the downtrend will put a drag on four major Southeast Asian economies, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. The economic integration in the region and the economic reforms are necessary for sustainable growth, it stressed.
The summary of the forecast and the related reports are found here. (17/July/2015)
The forecast was carried in the Nikkei Asian Review. Please visit here. (22/July/2015)

Asian Economic Policy Review (AEPR) New Issue

The new issue (Vol. 10, No 2) on "Social Security in Aging Asia" was issued. (17/July/15)

JCER Seminar: Japan's Economic Prospects 2015

The challenge in achieving fiscal reconstruction and the transition of demographic trends Susumu Kuwahara (26/Jun/15)

Asia Research Report

ASEAN Economic Integration-How Much Progress Has Been Made ? (4/Jun/15)

JCER Seminar: Japan's Economic Prospects 2015

The First Arrow of Abenomics: Has QQE been exerting its intended effects? Ikuko Samikawa (27/May/15)

Vision 2050

60% Reduction in CO2 Emissions by 2050 Relative to 2005 is Achievable (26/Mar/15)
--30% reduction --matching U.S. Target--by 2030
--Japan must lead international debate on the prevention of global warming

Japan Financial Report

"Regional Finance in an Age of Population Decline"
"Plunge in New Housing Starts Means Existing Homes Market Expansion Is Key"

Pan Asia-Pacific conference on "Social Security in Aging Asia"

The conference was held as part of a series of biannual meetings to publish the "Asian Economic Policy Review" . About 25 top-level scholars and experts discussed the region's important challenges. It is reported in the media. The proposed working papers are found here.(24/Oct/14)

Speech by Dr. Simon Potter,Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

"Implementation of Open Market Operations in a Time of Transition" (25/Sep/14)

International Conference

An international conference entitled "Abenomics - stock-taking and lessons for the EU" is held on Oct. 8th, by Bruegel, a European think tank located in Brussels. President of JCER, Mr. Kazumasa Iwata attends this conference as a speaker. (25/Sep/14)

Joint Proposals: Tokyo Financial City Vision

Vitalizing Japan' s Financial and Capital Markets as a Pillar to the New Growth Strategy (16/May/14)
Outline / Joint Proposals

Discussion Paper

Differentiated Use of Small Business Credit Scoring by Relationship Lenders and Transactional Lenders: Evidence from Firm-Bank Matched Data in Japan
Arito Ono, Ryo Hasumi, Hideaki Hirata (17/Apr/14)

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