Japan Center for Economic Research
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Economic Forecast
 
  The Japan Center for Economic Research releases economic forecasts, which have enjoyed high acclaim, both at home and abroad.

Short-term Forecast New!

Medium-term ForecastNew!

Long-term Forecast

World Business Climate Index New!

JCER Monthly GDP and Super-short-term Forecast

Comments on Quarterly Estimates of GDP and Tankan

JCER is highly acclaimed for the wide range of economic forecasts it has been compiling for the past 40 years - an achievement unmatched by any other Japanese research institute. These forecasts are noted for their objectivity - reflecting the politically neutral stance taken by JCER - as well as their accuracy, and are respected in business and economic circles at home and abroad.

There are three time-frames of forecasts: short-term, medium-term and long-term, each compiled under the direction of a chief economist. The compilation of these economic projections is an integral part of JCER's training activities.
The short-term forecast is released quarterly - in February, May, August and November. The "Successive Approximation" method is used - a method whereby data up to the most recent quarter is analyzed to make projections for an 18-24 month period.
In 1988, JCER added a Super-short-term forecast, which has enhanced the accuracy of the short-term forecasts. In 1999, JCER developed a monthly GDP.
Medium-term forecast, with a five-ten year projection period and encompassing both micro industry and a macro-economic perspectives, are released in December of each year .
 
Long-term forecast have projection periods of about twenty five years, and focus on specific topical trends in the economy.