Medium-term Economic Forecast

The 43rd Medium-Term Economic Forecast for the Japanese Economy : FY2016-FY2030 (Baseline scenario)NEW!


November 14, 2016
JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team
Summary report of baseline scenario



The 42nd Medium-Term Economic Forecast for the Japanese Economy : FY2015-FY2030 (Final Report)
Surviving the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Thorough Market Opening to Achieve 2% Growth

- Participation of Women, Foreigners, and the Elderly Key to Boosting Labor Force
- Improving Labor Productivity by ICT Investment Essential


March 2016
JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team

Summary

The Japan Center for Economic Research released its the 42nd Medium-Term Economic Forecast for FY2015 through FY2030.

The Japanese economy remains at a standstill, with deteriorating external environments added after the negative growth due to the consumption tax hike in fiscal(FY) 2014. The major factor behind the poor growth is structural problems that have not yet been solved. As the falling population and stagnant investment efficiency and productivity are undermining Japan, the shadow of an economic collapse is creeping over Japanese society.


Figure: Japan's potential growth rate might plunge into zero growth in the second half of the 2020s

Source: Cabinet Office"System of National Accounts"



Back Numbers of Medium-term Forecast of Japanese Economy

Japan's Economic Outlook 2014-2025 (Mar/15)
Summary (Macroeconomic Outlook) Summary (Industrial Outlook) Baseline Scenario Reform Scenario
This summary article was published in the "Discuss Japan" web magazine on May 12. The article is found here (external link to Discuss Japan)
Japan's Economic Outlook 2014-2025 (Dec/14) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2013-2025 (Mar/14)
Summary (Macroeconomic Outlook) Summary (Industrial and Regional Outlook) Full text Summary table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2013-2025 (Dec/13) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2012-2025 (Mar/13) Full text Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2012-2025: Summary (Dec/12) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2011-2020: Summary (Apr/12) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2011-2020 (Mar/12) Full text Summary Table
Growth Outlook by Region and Industry (Mar/12) Summary
(Topics) Population Projections by Prefecture in Japan (Mar/12) Full text
(Topics) Looking to the 70s Oil Crisis for Lessons in Energy-Saving (Mar/12) Full text
Japan's Economic Outlook 2011-2020 (Dec/11) Full text Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2011-2020 (JUN/11) Full text Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2010-2020 (FEB/11) Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2009-2020 (FEB/10) Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2008-2020 (DEC/08) Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2007-2020 (NOV/07) Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2006-2020 (DEC/06) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2005-2015 (DEC/05) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2004-2015 (DEC/04) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2003-2010 (DEC/03) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2002-2010 (DEC/02) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2001-2010 (DEC/01) Contents Table