Global Financial Framework to Ensure Growth(11/APR/13)

Stabilize Foreign Exchange Rates to Counter a Sovereign Debt Crisis
  --Currency reform to end the deflationary economy New!

Problems and Solutions(08/MAR/13)

Ensuring that Japan Remains an Economic Powerhouse
  --Female Labor Participation Key to Building World-Class Workforce

Policy Proposal To Ward Off Economic Recession And Stem Yen's Ascent(09/OCT/12)

Risks to be forestalled to smoothly raise consumption tax

Redesigning of the Japanese Economy: Beyond the Earthquake Disaster

Looking at Abandoning Nuclear Energy by the 2030s(06/NOV/12) Top Priorities: Address Spent Nuclear Fuel and Surplus Plutonium Issues.   Use of Nuclear Energy through 2050 Should Remain On Table. New! As energy policy shapes up to become a major point of contention in the next general elections, the government has changed course in favor of abandoning nuclear energy. The Energy and Environment Council on September 14 worked out an "Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment", the central pillars of which are to abandon reliance on nuclear power plants within the 2030s, promote energy conservation and rapidly expand use of renewable energy. The plan outlines six issues to be addressed if these pillars are to be realized. "Looking at Abandoning Nuclear Energy by the 2030s"

Policy Proposal To Ward Off Economic Recession And Stem Yen's Ascent(09/OCT/12) Risks to be forestalled to smoothly raise consumption tax The economic situation warrants no optimism on its future course. The ruling and major opposition parties, which have finished their presidential elections, are turning attention to the Diet dissolution and a snap election rather than policies. The political stalemate could facilitate an economic downturn, possibly unraveling the scenario to restore fiscal health, including a consumption tax increase. Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) makes urgent policy proposals to contain the immediate risk of economic recession while aiming for strategic fiscal management over the medium term. Ahead of the 2012 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group to be started in Tokyo on Oct. 9, we also propose frameworks which will help arrest the yen's appreciation and stabilize the financial system. Kazumasa Iwata,President "Risks to be forestalled to smoothly raise consumption tax"

Redesigning of the Japanese Economy: Beyond the Earthquake Disaster

Looking at Retaining Nuclear Power Plants (28/AUG/12) Retaining Nuclear Plants after 2030: Four Conditions At the end of June 2012, the government´s Energy and Environment Council announced three options relating to Japan´s reliance on nuclear power plants through 2030 (see Reference Table, last page). The government plans to select one of these options as early as August. We have estimated the economic impact of costs relating to the Fukushima Daiichi accident which followed the March, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, including cleanup costs and insurance and other expenses necessary to provide against the risk of future accidents. Based on these estimates, we have in the present report highlighted those points which we believe are essential to consider if Japan relies on nuclear power plants to supply a certain portion of its electric power needs through 2030 and after. A major premise underlying our proposals is that the causes of the Fukushima Daiichi accident must be clarified and new physical and procedural safety standards established by 2030. "Retaining Nuclear Plants after 2030: Four Conditions"

Looking at the Issue of Abandoning Nuclear Energy (30/JAN/12) Energy Saving and Renewable Energy Development Less Costly than Sticking with Nuclear Energy   --Nuclear Generation Could Cost Twice Government Estimates In our 38th Medium Term Forecast for the Japanese Economy released in early December , we considered and compared the cost of cleaning up the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station and continuing with nuclear power, against the cost of abandoning nuclear power by FY2050 (April, 2050-March, 2051), relying on solar and wind power to the extent that power transmission network upgrades are not required. We concluded that there was no distinct difference between the two. Taking the above forecast a step further, the present report estimates the cost of abandoning nuclear power by FY2050, relying on further energy conservation efforts as well as more widespread use of new forms of energy, including solar, wind, thermal, biomass and low head hydropower. We find that making efforts in both adopting new forms of energy and energy saving would likely be cheaper and more economically advantageous than continuing with nuclear power. Tatsuo Kobayashi, Senior Economist "Energy Saving and Renewable Energy Development Less Costly than Sticking with Nuclear Energy"

Influence of the electricity shortage on Japanese regions and industries (20/OCT/11) Structural Change in Industry to Ease Downside of Power Shortage   --Avert Current Account Deficit by Shifting Resources to Machinery Industry All nuclear power stations in Japan may be forced to cease operation in the wake of the disastrous accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. We have used the JCER regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the impact of the electricity shortage over the medium to long term. Power shortages resulting from the shutdown of nuclear power stations and higher power costs associated with the substitution of thermal power generation are delivering shocks to the economy, but industrial restructuring could reduce the margin of decline to 0.4%. If Japanese industry could be structurally altered to power it through energy-saving technology, it might be possible to avoid a decline in the production of machinery, the nation's mainstay industry. Tatsuo Kobayashi, Senior Economist Katsuaki Ochiai, Associate Senior Economist Yuta Tachi, Economist "Structural Change in Industry to Ease Downside of Power Shortage"

Tax and Pension Reform (17/MAY/11) Pension Reform: Take 'Energizing' Approach   --Stimulate Private Investment and Consumption   --Scrap Premiums: Finance via Consumption Tax Coping with the problem of an increasingly aged Japanese population requires urgent reform of the nation's tax and social security systems. There is an active debate on how to fund this reform, but effecting it by relying mainly on higher taxes carries the risk of hurting the economy, which would render it even more difficult to increase tax revenue and rebuild government finances. It is most important to leverage the vitality of the private sector via thoroughgoing reform and give working young people a reason for hope. Kazumasa Iwata, JCER President "Pension Reform: Take 'Energizing' Approach"

Thinking Costs of Generating Electricity(19/JUL/11) FY2020 Nuclear Generating Cost Treble Pre-Accident Level   --Huge Price Tag on Fukushima Accident Cleanup Most observers now believe it will take several decades to clean up the accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station which took place in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake."Impact to last Decade or more if Existing Nuclear Plants Ceasing", we estimated it would reach 5.7 to 20 trillion yen over the next ten years. Based on this estimate, we have calculated the estimated cost of electric power generation from nuclear plants. By fiscal year 2020 (April 1,2020-March 31,2021), the generation cost of 1 kilowatt hour (kWh) of electric power from nuclear plants could reach 17yen, or about three times that of pre-accident levels (5.4yen-6.4yen). These results make it difficult to argue that nuclear energy has any cost advantages over renewable forms of energy, such as wind power. Tatsuo Kobayashi,Senior Economist "FY2020 Nuclear Generating Cost Treble Pre-Accident Level"

Thinking of Energy Shortage (25/APR/11) Impact to last Decade or more if Existing Nuclear Plants Shut Down   --GDP Could Drop 2% on Power Shortages Two months have now passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake struck. Other than the tangible and intangible wounds inflicted by the disaster, constraints on electric power supplies owing to the major accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station will continue to weigh heavily on the Japanese economy. According to estimates based on our economic model, if there is a 10% electric power shortage in the Kanto region this summer and economic activity in each industry declines in proportion to its dependency on electric power, economic activity in Japan could fall by over 4% during the summer and by 2% for the year as a whole. JCER Economic Research Department "Impact to last Decade or more if Existing Nuclear Plants Shut Down"

Policy Proposals for the response of the Great East Japan Earthquake (17/MAR/11) Urgent Need for 5 Trillion Yen Disaster Recovery Package The government should act quickly to assemble a 5 trillion Yen disaster recovery package to be financed by freezing proposed government programs, including the child allowance and other programs, while imposing a temporary "reconstruction tax" from the April 2012. JCER Economic Research Department "Urgent Need for 5 Trillion Yen Disaster Recovery Package"

Joint Policy Proposal with International Think Tanks(OCT/09)