Recession Indicator

<Reference value>May: The Recession Indicator marks 28.6%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2020/07/08

  The Recession Indicator (reference value*) in May 2020 marks 28.6% (Figure 1). The probability declined from last month because the Leading Index as the underlying data of calculation, rose for

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2020/07/08

<Reference value>May: The Recession Indicator marks 28.6%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/06/10

Official release of the recession indicator temporarily suspended: A sharp decline in the leading index due to the Coronavirus crisis distorts the probability

- Until the estimation method is revised, the reference value will continue to be calculated
- The reference value for April is 59.4%

Takashi MIYAZAKI