JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies: April 2018 issue

Renewed Concern over Trump-Related Risks in Asia

Economists Remain Cautiously Optimistic
April 9, 2018, JCER

    Asian economists continue to project bright outlooks for their economies in 2018 and beyond. Growth forecasts for major Southeast Asian countries were revised upward for 2018, reflecting strong investment and consumption as well as a continuing increase in exports. Growth in India is projected to go up in 2018/19 to more than 7%, recovering from the 6% level in the previous fiscal year, when the economy temporarily stagnated ahead of the introduction of a new tax system. Despite general optimism, economists express renewed concern over the negative impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's policies. Rising protectionism was seen as the greatest risk throughout the region for the first time in a year according to our scoring system. Economists also cited worries related to financial turmoil triggered by his policies.

PDF/Full text/ PDF/Appendix

Article in Nikkei Asian Review

Main points of the survey

  • The weighted average of growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 in 2018 was revised upward from the previous survey by 0.1 points to 5.0% as figures for Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand were up. Investment and consumption are expected to be strong. The growth of exports could moderate, but is likely to stay firm.
  • The growth projection for India in 2018/19 was 7.4%, up 0.7 points from the estimate of 6.7% in 2017/18, when the economy temporarily stagnated. The 2018/19 figure was unchanged from the previous survey.
  • Rise of protectionism was seen as the biggest risk in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and India as well as in the combined score of the six countries according to the JCER scoring system.

List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, chairman, Center for Information and Development Studies; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior manager, RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head, economics department, Kenanga Investment Bank; Anthony Dass, chief economist, AmBank Group; Manokaran Mottain, chief economist, Alliance Bank; Lee Heng Guie, executive director, Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC)

Philippines: Alvin Ang, director of economic research, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, FVP-chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Jojo Gonzales, head of research, Philippine Equity Partners Inc.; Pauline May Ann E. Revillas, research analyst, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company (Metrobank); Emilio S. Neri Jr., vice president / lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Victor Abola, senior economist, University of Asia and the Pacific; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Phillipines; Mitzie Conchada, associate dean, school of economics, De La Salle University

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Center for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank Ltd.

Thailand: Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, head-research of macroeconomics, Kasikorn Research Center; Thammarat Kittisiripat, senior economist, KT Zmico Securities; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research office, CIMB Thai Bank PCL; Naris Sathapholdeja, team head, TMB Analytics, TMB Bank PCL

India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief strategist & head of reserch, India, Mizuho Bank Limited; Shekhar Shah, director-general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; David Fernandez, chief Asia-Pacific economist, Barclays Bank; Donald Hanna, group chief economist, CIMB group