Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies

Moderate Growth led by Steady Domestic Demand
- Concern deepens over Trade Friction and Currency Depreciation (30/Aug/18) NEW!!

　　JCER Short-term Economic Forecast Team
　　 Shinichi NISHIOKA (Principal Economist)
　　 Eriko TAKAHASHI (Senior Economist)
　　 Trainee Economists: Hisatoshi Aoyama, Kenta Domoto, Yutaro Yamada

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- 2018 Q2 GDP continued on a trajectory of moderate growth in China and ASEAN4, owing to steady domestic demand. However, there is concern over rising trade friction and currency depreciation.
- China’s GDP outlook for 2018 has been revised upward due to stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of 2018.
- The 2018 economic outlook for ASEAN4 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Growth in Indonesia and Philippines for both 2018 and 2019 has been revised downward, taking into account the impact of the recent interest rate hikes. Thailand’s forecast has been revised upward due to positive income effects supported by strong domestic and external demand. The growth trajectory of Malaysia has been revised, considering the impact of measures announced by the new government.

Read the full report
The original report in Japanese is here.

Figure: Real GDP growth in China and ASEAN4
(Note) Previous forecasts from February 2018 in parentheses. (Source) Haver Analytics, forecasts by JCER

[Back Numbers]
February 2018 forecast (NAR report)
August 2017 forecast (NAR report)
February 2017 forecast (NAR report)
July 2016 forecast (NAR report)
January 2016 forecast (NAR report)
September 2015 forecast (NAR report)
January 2015 forecast (NAR report)

Medium-term forecast through 2030 is available here