The 44th Medium-Term Economic Forecast for the Japanese Economy : FY2017-FY2030 NEW!
Economic Growth through Drastic Changes in How People Work
-A Society That Capitalizes on Longevity-

April 6, 2018
JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team
Summary of the final report

The 44th Medium-Term Economic Forecast: Special Report
Inter-generational Equity under the Increasing Longevity

February 22, 2018
JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team

Sumio Saruyama (Lead Economist)

Saeko Maeda (Principal Economist)

Ryo Hasumi (Economist)

Kazuki Kuroiwa (Trainee Economist)

Full text

We examine how the extension of life span will affect the relative advantage of each generation, as Japan enters the age of the centenarian. In addition to evaluating the benefits (consumption) that can be additionally enjoyed with a longer life span, we will also focus on the economic contribution by the elderly working longer. If seniors extend their working and earning lives, rolling back the age at which they begin receiving pension benefits, the government's fiscal balance of tax and social security will improve, which can reduce the burden on young and future generations. We consider how far it may be possible to avoid outcomes which place the greatest burden on the youngest generations.

The 44th Medium-Term Economic Forecast: Special Report
Slow US Wage Growth Explained - Changing Demographic & Employment Trends

December 18, 2017
Eriko Takahashi (Senior Economist)
Full text

Abstract
Despite a seemingly strong labor market, wage growth in the US has remained relatively slow since the Great Recession. What are the underlying causes for this? This report examines the driving forces of sluggish wages with a particular focus on changing demographic and employment trends. The analysis reveals that (A) the slowing and aging of the population, (B) the retirement of baby boomers, (C) the decline in the prime-age labor force participation rate, and (D) shifts in sectoral and occupational composition of employment are potential factors that may have contributed to the wage slowdown. These structural factors or long-term trends are not expected to be reversed in the near future. Consequently, wages may remain on a modest growth trajectory in the long run.

Back Numbers of Medium-term Forecast of Japanese Economy

Japan's Economic Outlook 2017-2030 (Nov/17) Baseline Scenario Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2016-2030 (Mar/17) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2016-2030 (Nov/16) Baseline Scenario Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2015-2030 (Mar/16) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2014-2025 (Mar/15)
Summary (Macroeconomic Outlook) Summary (Industrial Outlook) Baseline Scenario Reform Scenario
This summary article was published in the "Discuss Japan" web magazine on May 12. The article is found here (external link to Discuss Japan)
Japan's Economic Outlook 2014-2025 (Dec/14) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2013-2025 (Mar/14)
Summary (Macroeconomic Outlook) Summary (Industrial and Regional Outlook) Full text Summary table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2013-2025 (Dec/13) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2012-2025 (Mar/13) Full text Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2012-2025: Summary (Dec/12) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2011-2020: Summary (Apr/12) Summary
Japan's Economic Outlook 2011-2020 (Mar/12) Full text Summary Table
Growth Outlook by Region and Industry (Mar/12) Summary
(Topics) Population Projections by Prefecture in Japan (Mar/12) Full text
(Topics) Looking to the 70s Oil Crisis for Lessons in Energy-Saving (Mar/12) Full text
Japan's Economic Outlook 2011-2020 (Dec/11) Full text Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2011-2020 (JUN/11) Full text Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2010-2020 (FEB/11) Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2009-2020 (FEB/10) Summary Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2008-2020 (DEC/08) Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2007-2020 (NOV/07) Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2006-2020 (DEC/06) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2005-2015 (DEC/05) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2004-2015 (DEC/04) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2003-2010 (DEC/03) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2002-2010 (DEC/02) Contents Table
Japan's Economic Outlook 2001-2010 (DEC/01) Contents Table