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Asia Forecast Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist
   
Tetsuaki TAKANO
  Senior Economist

2021/10/25

The Asian Medium-term Economic Forecast Team will be releasing timely reports in advance of the medium-term forecast to be released in December. As the first report, we estimated the losses that the COVID-19 crisis has incurred to Asia.

Summary

The service industry, including tourism, has experienced severe damage in Asia. In 2020, the year of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, the overall economic losses of 15 Asian countries and regions, including Japan, amounted to about $1.7 trillion in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). Countries with high growth rates during ordinary times, such as India and the ASEAN5, were impacted the hardest, and the decline was especially severe in the service industry, including food services and tourism. The effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the supply and demand structure may persist in the medium-term; we examine the impact on the industry from the GDP output perspective in 2020.

Lost income from COVID-19 crisis: nominal GDP

Note:GDP in the absence of the COVID-19 crisis was based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections (World Economic outlook) as of October 2019, before the outbreak of the novel coronavirus became apparent.
Source: CEIC, Haver Analytics, IMF

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$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO