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Medium Term Economic Forecast Medium-Term Economic Forecast (44th / FY2017-FY2030)

Economic Growth through Drastic Changes in How People Work

-A Society That Capitalizes on Longevity-

  Lead Economist
  Principal Economist
Katsuaki OCHIAI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economis(Aflac)
Azusa SUZUKI Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Representatives)



JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team

 Japan’s economy, at the moment, has been expanding on the back of strong overseas growth, but it may require caution in the medium term. Japanese companies remain hesitant to expand domestic facilities or invest in human resources at home on concerns that the market may shrink in the near future. They are focusing on expanding operations overseas while investing in labor-saving measures on the domestic front.However, they are facing difficulty in absorbing new technologies after scaling back investments in human resources. Meanwhile, wages will probably remain stagnant and labor share of income will continue to decline.
 Drastic working reform may serve as a catalyst to reverse this trend. Japan must overhaul its current social system, under which many people retire when they reach 65 and women quit working after having children, because such a system discourages elderly people and women from fully participating in the labor force. Employers should also come up with measures to allow people to spend their time at work more efficiently. Consequently, the nation’s workforce should be empowered both quantitatively and qualitatively. An increasing number of foreigners living in Japan will help the nation boost its economy by overcoming labor shortages. Moreover, Japan can improve its fiscal condition and eliminate intergenerational income disparities more easily if elderly people remain in the labor force for a longer period of time. In other words, Japan must capitalize on the longevity of its population by reforming its social structures.


Promoting Innovation by Expanding Free Trade and Breaking Away from In-house Mentality

DX and human capital investment will get the Japanese economy on growth track again

Economic Forecast 49th FY2022-FY2035



Japan’s economy after Russian invasion of Ukraine

- Soaring resource prices, risk of zero growth in the mid-2020s
- Tighter sanctions may cause negative growth
- DX effective for both countering high resource prices and for improving productivity in medical and long-term care

Economic Forecast 48th FY2021-FY2035


Japan’s post-COVID economy

- DX acceleration is a path to green growth
- Growth strategy under decarbonization constraints

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHITetsuaki TAKANOSumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAIKyoko DEGUCHIHirofumi KAWASAKITatsujiro SUZUKIHikaru KOBAYASHI/ Yuichi ARITA Trainee Economist (The House of Representatives)/ Tetsuji NAKAHARA Trainee Economist (HIGASHI-NIPPON BANK)/ Shunya MATSUO Trainee Economist (CHUBU Electric Power)


Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis

- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt
- Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035



Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)