A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Research Director：Kei-Ichiro INABA

  Chief Forecaster

Deputy Director：Akira TANAKA

  Senior Economist

2021/09/15

JCER released September 2021 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

• The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP decreased from 18.3% in Q1 2021 to 7.9% in Q2 2021. The private consumption in Q3 2021 will decline due to the strict lockdown introduced in response to the spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 since the end of July. Meanwhile, the capital investment, especially high-tech industries’ ones, has been robust. The private consumption can recover in and after October as the delta variant is assumed to be suppressed. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 8.3% in 2021 and 6.0% in 2022.
• The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP was 9.2% in Q2 2021, turned positive from –1.5% in Q1 2021. The strict lockdowns extended in some of the countries in response to the delta variant infection will prevent the ASEAN4 economy from clearly recovering for some time to come. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 3.3% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】