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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (September 2021 forecast /2021Q3-2023Q1)

A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist

2021/09/15

JCER released September 2021 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP decreased from 18.3% in Q1 2021 to 7.9% in Q2 2021. The private consumption in Q3 2021 will decline due to the strict lockdown introduced in response to the spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 since the end of July. Meanwhile, the capital investment, especially high-tech industries’ ones, has been robust. The private consumption can recover in and after October as the delta variant is assumed to be suppressed. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 8.3% in 2021 and 6.0% in 2022.
  • The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP was 9.2% in Q2 2021, turned positive from –1.5% in Q1 2021. The strict lockdowns extended in some of the countries in response to the delta variant infection will prevent the ASEAN4 economy from clearly recovering for some time to come. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 3.3% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2021/09/15

A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI

2021/03/16

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

2020/12/10

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035

Masashi UEHARAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURA/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Go YAMADA