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Recession Indicator

April: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.9%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/06/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in April released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 10.9%, from 12.5% on revised retroactivity value in March (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for two consecutive months, due to improve in the inventory ratio of final demand goods, sales forecast of small businesses, commodity price index and others. The result of lifting pre-emergency measures in March, there were no restrictions on economic activity throughout the period in April, hence the production and corporate indicators were improved. However, Chinese lockdowns and markup on daily necessities pose downside risks to the economic outlook.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (April 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/06/08

April: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.9%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/05/12

March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/04/08

February: The Recession Indicator rose to 65.7%

- The Indicator rose to near warning level

Yoshiki Shimoda