April: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.9%
－ The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months
The Recession Indicator for Japan in April released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 10.9%, from 12.5% on revised retroactivity value in March (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for two consecutive months, due to improve in the inventory ratio of final demand goods, sales forecast of small businesses, commodity price index and others. The result of lifting pre-emergency measures in March, there were no restrictions on economic activity throughout the period in April, hence the production and corporate indicators were improved. However, Chinese lockdowns and markup on daily necessities pose downside risks to the economic outlook.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (April 2022)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index
－ Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index
－ Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index
－ "Early warning signal" alarmed
－ Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.