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Asia Forecast Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies (December 2020 Issue/ 2020-2035)

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Masashi UEHARA
  Principal Economist
Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Tamaki SAKURA
  Economist
Aiko MUNAKATA Economist
   
Go YAMADA
  Principal Economist

2020/12/10


The Japan Center for Economic Research on Dec. 10 released its sixth Medium-Term Asian Economic Forecast, which provides a bird’s-eye view of the region’s economy over the next 15 years. The report — titled “Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?” — addresses the impact of the spread of COVID-19 and looks at how Asian economies are faring compared with others around the world. Based on this damage assessment, the report forecasts the economic growth (real gross domestic product growth rates), economic scale (nominal GDP) and income per capita (nominal GDP per capita) of 15 countries and territories across Asia and the Pacific.

Two main scenarios are considered: a “baseline” or standard scenario in which the effects of the coronavirus crisis are confined to the current economy, and an “aggravated coronavirus scenario,” which affects not only the current situation but also larger structural trends such as globalization, urbanization and progress in innovation. In this more severe case, the crisis changes potential growth rates over the medium term.

In each scenario, China emerges from the crisis relatively strong, having quickly and successfully contained the coronavirus so far and prevented the damage from spreading. As a result, according to the projections, the Chinese economy overtakes that of the U.S. by 2028-29. By 2035, China’s income per capita reaches $28,000 — though this would still be short of the government’s assumed target of $30,000.

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