Back to List
Recession Indicator

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/10/11

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in August released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 54.9% from 68.7% on revised retroactivity value in July (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data rose for the first time in four months, due to improvement of consumer confidence, new housing starts, the inventory ratio of final demand goods and others. The Recession Indicator in August was below 67%, which is a reference point of signaling recession. Improvement of consumer confidence in the same month contributed to increasing in the Leading Index. In September, while the number of COVID-19 patients continued to decline, the price of daily necessities continued to rise, therefore the downside risks to the economy remain high.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (August 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/10/11

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda