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Recession Indicator

August: The Recession Indicator marks 10.5%

- The Leading Index rose for three successive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2020/10/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 10.5% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for three successive months, due to improvements in inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, growth in money stock (M2), sales forecast of small businesses, and others. On October 7, the Cabinet Office revised upward the assessment of the economy, which is calculated mechanically from the coincidence index, from "worsening" to "halting to fall" for the first time in 13 months. The behavior of the recession probability suggests that the Japanese economy has already got out of a recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (August 2020)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.

2020/10/08

August: The Recession Indicator marks 10.5%

- The Leading Index rose for three successive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/09/08

The Recession probability marks 30.7% in July

- Official publish resumes and estimation method is improved

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/08/11

<Reference value>June: The Recession Indicator marks 24%

- The Leading Index recorded the largest ever rise

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/07/08

<Reference value>May: The Recession Indicator marks 28.6%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2020/06/10

Official release of the recession indicator temporarily suspended: A sharp decline in the leading index due to the Coronavirus crisis distorts the probability

- Until the estimation method is revised, the reference value will continue to be calculated
- The reference value for April is 59.4%

Takashi MIYAZAKI