August: The Recession Indicator marks 10.5%
－ The Leading Index rose for three successive months
The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 10.5% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for three successive months, due to improvements in inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, growth in money stock (M2), sales forecast of small businesses, and others. On October 7, the Cabinet Office revised upward the assessment of the economy, which is calculated mechanically from the coincidence index, from "worsening" to "halting to fall" for the first time in 13 months. The behavior of the recession probability suggests that the Japanese economy has already got out of a recession.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (August 2020)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.
March: The Recession Indicator marks 85.7%
－ The probability is above the warning level again
February: The Recession Indicator falls to 63.9%
－ The probability is below the warning level for a recession
January: The Recession Indicator marks 94.0%
－ The Leading Index is at its lowest level in about two years
December: The Recession Indicator reached 92.3%
－ The highest level since November 2019
November: The Recession Indicator rose to 80.8%
－ "Early warning signal" alarmed again