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Recession Indicator

August: The Recession Indicator marks 10.5%

- The Leading Index rose for three successive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2020/10/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 10.5% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for three successive months, due to improvements in inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, growth in money stock (M2), sales forecast of small businesses, and others. On October 7, the Cabinet Office revised upward the assessment of the economy, which is calculated mechanically from the coincidence index, from "worsening" to "halting to fall" for the first time in 13 months. The behavior of the recession probability suggests that the Japanese economy has already got out of a recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (August 2020)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here) for more details.

2023/11/09

September: The Recession Indicator was 56.5%

- Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/10/10

August: The Recession Indicator was 31.7%

- Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator was 82.7%

- Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/08/08

June: The Recession Indicator was 44.5%

- The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/07/10

May: The Recession Indicator fell to 37.1% further

- New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement

Takashi MIYAZAKI