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Recession Indicator

August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2021/10/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose from the previous month to 35.7% (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data fell for two consecutive months, because of deteriorations in the inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, the growth of money stock (M2), consumer confidence, and among others. However, there are signs of consumer confidence recovery, due to spreading vaccines and decrease in the number of COVID-19 patients.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (August 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/10/11

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda