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Recession Indicator

August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2021/10/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose from the previous month to 35.7% (Figure 1). Since the Leading Index as the underlying data fell for two consecutive months, because of deteriorations in the inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, the growth of money stock (M2), consumer confidence, and among others. However, there are signs of consumer confidence recovery, due to spreading vaccines and decrease in the number of COVID-19 patients.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (August 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2021/10/08

August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator moved up to 19.6%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in two months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/08/10

June: The Recession Indicator fell to 5.7%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in two months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator moved up to 22.1%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in a year

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/06/08

April: The Recession Indicator marks 1.4%

- The Leading Index rose for 11 consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI