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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (June 2020 forecast /2020Q2-2022Q1)

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Economist:Tetsuo KAN
  Economist
Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist
   

2020/06/05

JCER released June 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's 2020 Q1 real GDP contracted by 6.8%. Manufacturing output and consumption have been gradually recovered since April. However deteriorating external demand puts downward pressure on output, we expect that China’s growth rate in 2020 Q2 is also negative. China’s GDP is projected to contract by 0.2% in 2020 and to rebound by 9.1% in 2021.
  • ASEAN4’s economy is also negatively affected by lockdown. The overall growth rate of ASEAN4 is projected to be significantly negative in 2020 Q2, nearly 8%. There countries are turning to economic resumption, but the growth rate is expected to fall to -3.0% in 2020, then increase to 6.4% in 2021.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2021/12/22

Moderate recovery in China and ASEAN4 supported by private consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO

2021/09/15

A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI