China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Research Director：Shinichi NISHIOKA

  Chief Forecaster

Deputy Director：Akira TANAKA

  Senior Economist

Economist：Tetsuo KAN

  Economist

Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist

   

2020/06/05

JCER released June 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

• China's 2020 Q1 real GDP contracted by 6.8%. Manufacturing output and consumption have been gradually recovered since April. However deteriorating external demand puts downward pressure on output, we expect that China’s growth rate in 2020 Q2 is also negative. China’s GDP is projected to contract by 0.2% in 2020 and to rebound by 9.1% in 2021.
• ASEAN4’s economy is also negatively affected by lockdown. The overall growth rate of ASEAN4 is projected to be significantly negative in 2020 Q2, nearly 8%. There countries are turning to economic resumption, but the growth rate is expected to fall to -3.0% in 2020, then increase to 6.4% in 2021.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】