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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (June 2020 forecast /2020Q2-2022Q1)

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Economist:Tetsuo KAN
  Economist
Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist
   

2020/06/05

JCER released June 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's 2020 Q1 real GDP contracted by 6.8%. Manufacturing output and consumption have been gradually recovered since April. However deteriorating external demand puts downward pressure on output, we expect that China’s growth rate in 2020 Q2 is also negative. China’s GDP is projected to contract by 0.2% in 2020 and to rebound by 9.1% in 2021.
  • ASEAN4’s economy is also negatively affected by lockdown. The overall growth rate of ASEAN4 is projected to be significantly negative in 2020 Q2, nearly 8%. There countries are turning to economic resumption, but the growth rate is expected to fall to -3.0% in 2020, then increase to 6.4% in 2021.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2022/12/15

China’s GDP will not surpass that of the U.S.

-- Taiwan set to overtake Japan in 2022 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2022 Issue 2022-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURAGo YAMADAMasashi UEHARAYasumasa SHIMIZUYoshiki SHIMODA

2022/06/14

China’s Zero-COVID Policy Puts Downward Pressures on China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2022 forecast 2022Q2-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABAAkira TANAKA

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist