China’s Economy continues to slow due to Limited Economic Measures
―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―
JCER released August 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- China's 2019 Q3 real GDP growth slowed to 6.0%. Investment in fixed assets in October was at a record low, despite a boost in local government bond issuance to finance infrastructure construction. The United States and China have yet to finalize a trade deal, heightening economic uncertainty. Thus China’s 2020 and 2021 growth outlook is expected to slow to 5.9%.
- In ASEAN4, the prolonged US-China friction has slowed economic growth, leading to further monetary easing. Local authorities also plan to promote deregulation and corporate tax cuts, to accelerate production relocation from China. The 2019 and 2020 ASEAN4 GDP outlook has been revised downward, while growth is expected to recover moderately in 2021.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1
-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1