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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (December 2019 forecast /2019Q4-2022Q1)

China’s Economy continues to slow due to Limited Economic Measures

―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Mitsuki Shirasu Trainee Economist
   
Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist
   

2019/12/03

JCER released August 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's 2019 Q3 real GDP growth slowed to 6.0%. Investment in fixed assets in October was at a record low, despite a boost in local government bond issuance to finance infrastructure construction. The United States and China have yet to finalize a trade deal, heightening economic uncertainty. Thus China’s 2020 and 2021 growth outlook is expected to slow to 5.9%.
  • In ASEAN4, the prolonged US-China friction has slowed economic growth, leading to further monetary easing. Local authorities also plan to promote deregulation and corporate tax cuts, to accelerate production relocation from China. The 2019 and 2020 ASEAN4 GDP outlook has been revised downward, while growth is expected to recover moderately in 2021.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2021/09/15

A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI

2021/03/16

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

2020/12/10

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035

Masashi UEHARAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURA/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Go YAMADA