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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (December 2019 forecast /2019Q4-2022Q1)

China’s Economy continues to slow due to Limited Economic Measures

―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Mitsuki Shirasu Trainee Economist
   
Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist
   

2019/12/03

JCER released August 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's 2019 Q3 real GDP growth slowed to 6.0%. Investment in fixed assets in October was at a record low, despite a boost in local government bond issuance to finance infrastructure construction. The United States and China have yet to finalize a trade deal, heightening economic uncertainty. Thus China’s 2020 and 2021 growth outlook is expected to slow to 5.9%.
  • In ASEAN4, the prolonged US-China friction has slowed economic growth, leading to further monetary easing. Local authorities also plan to promote deregulation and corporate tax cuts, to accelerate production relocation from China. The 2019 and 2020 ASEAN4 GDP outlook has been revised downward, while growth is expected to recover moderately in 2021.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO