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Asia Forecast Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies (December 2022 Issue/ 2022-2035)

China’s GDP will not surpass that of the U.S.

-- Taiwan set to overtake Japan in 2022 in terms of GDP per capita

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMA
  Principal Economist
Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Tamaki SAKURA
  Economist
Go YAMADA
  Principal Economist
Masashi UEHARA
  Principal Economist
Yasumasa SHIMIZU
  Principal Economist
Yoshiki SHIMODA
  Economist

2022/12/15

The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) released its 8th Medium-term Asian Economic Forecast, which projects GDP growth for 18 countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region, from 2022 through 2035.

The forecast covers 15 major Asian countries and regions, and the U.S., Australia and Canada for comparison. It extends over a time horizon of 14 years (2022-2035), eight years longer than the IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) World Economic Outlook, which provides forecasts through 2027. Unlike the Asian Development Bank, which focuses on the current growth rate of developing countries in Asia, JCER’s Asian Outlook is a long-term, comprehensive forecast of the Asian economy.

In this report, we forecast based on Digital Potential Index of each country, factoring inflation caused by the Ukraine crisis, the spreads of interest rates hike around the world, and the “U.S.-China tech war” caused by the enclosure of advanced technologies.

China’s GDP will not Overtake that of U.S.

Source: IMF, forecast by JCER



This Asian Economic Forecast was reported on the Nikkei Asian Review .

China’s GDP unlikely to surpass U.S. in next few decades: JCER (December 14, 2022)

Taiwan to surpass Japan in GDP per capita this year: JCER (December 15, 2022)

2022/12/15

China’s GDP will not surpass that of the U.S.

-- Taiwan set to overtake Japan in 2022 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2022 Issue 2022-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURAGo YAMADAMasashi UEHARAYasumasa SHIMIZUYoshiki SHIMODA

2022/06/14

China’s Zero-COVID Policy Puts Downward Pressures on China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2022 forecast 2022Q2-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABAAkira TANAKA

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist