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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (June 2022 forecast /2022Q2-2024Q1)

China’s Zero-COVID Policy Puts Downward Pressures on China and ASEAN4

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist

2022/06/14

JCER released June 2022 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP increased from 4.0% in Q4 2021 to 4.8% in Q1 2022 due to firm private consumption and local governments’ infrastructure investment. The economy will slow sharply in Q2 2022 due to harsh lockdown measures implemented in major cities in response to the spread of COVID-19. Although these measures will be relaxed gradually in and after Q2 2022, the rebound of private demand will be curbed, assuming that some restrictive measures will remain by the end of September. Meanwhile, the local governments’ infrastructure investment will continue to increase, thereby underpinning the economy. The real GDP growth rate is projected to be 5.0% in 2022 and 5.5% in 2023.
  • The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP increased from 4.4% in Q4 2021 to 4.9% in Q1 2022 due to firm private consumption. The private consumption is expected to remain robust as the people’s mobility improves with the relaxation of COVID-19 related restrictions in and after Q2 2022. Meanwhile, ASEAN4’s exports will fall in Q2 2022, and their recovery will be modest in Q3 2022. In these quarters, the exports will receive downward pressures from China’s economic slowdown and distortions in international trade and specialization, both of which will be caused by China’s restrictive measures against COVID-19. The real GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.9% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2022/06/14

China’s Zero-COVID Policy Puts Downward Pressures on China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2022 forecast 2022Q2-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABAAkira TANAKA

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA