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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (March 2021 forecast /2021Q1-2023Q1)

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist
   

2021/03/16

JCER released March 2021 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP increased from 4.9% in Q3 to 6.5% in Q4 2020. In 2021, although the strict control measures on COVID-19 infection is casting a shadow on the recovering-trend in employment and income environment, the trend will remain intact. The robust growth in domestic fixed capital formation and exports will continue. The government’s massive measures of promoting manufacturing and modernizing infrastructures will boost the Chinese economy. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 8.9% in 2021 and 5.9% in 2022.
  • The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP increased from -5.3% in Q3 to -3.8% in Q4 2020. Winter private consumption fell back to a reduction in countries facing the rebound of COVID-19 infection. In ASEAN4 as a whole, the delay of the obtainment of vaccines and the greatly uncertain schedule of vaccination will be negative for the economic recovery. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 5.3% in 2021 and 5.8% in 2022.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO