Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4
JCER released March 2021 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP increased from 4.9% in Q3 to 6.5% in Q4 2020. In 2021, although the strict control measures on COVID-19 infection is casting a shadow on the recovering-trend in employment and income environment, the trend will remain intact. The robust growth in domestic fixed capital formation and exports will continue. The government’s massive measures of promoting manufacturing and modernizing infrastructures will boost the Chinese economy. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 8.9% in 2021 and 5.9% in 2022.
- The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP increased from －5.3% in Q3 to －3.8% in Q4 2020. Winter private consumption fell back to a reduction in countries facing the rebound of COVID-19 infection. In ASEAN4 as a whole, the delay of the obtainment of vaccines and the greatly uncertain schedule of vaccination will be negative for the economic recovery. The GDP growth rate is projected to be 5.3% in 2021 and 5.8% in 2022.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1
-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035