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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (March 2022 forecast /2022Q1-2024Q1)

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist
   

2022/03/17

JCER released March 2022 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • The year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP was 4.0% in Q4 2021, higher than our previous forecast (3.0%) due to two more-than-expected factors – firmly recovered private consumption and buoyant exports to the U.S. The growth rate of China’s real GDP in 2021 turned out to be 8.1%. The Chinese economy is expected to continue growing steadily in and after 2022. Not only because China’s energy self-sufficient ratio is high, but also because importing crude oil and natural gas from Russia is likely to continue working uneventfully in terms of both price and quantity, negative impacts of the sharp rise in global energy prices on China’s economy are expected to be limited. Moreover, the Chinese government appears to nimbly implement effective economic stimulus packages as necessary to underpin the steady growth. The real GDP growth rate is projected to be 5.4% in 2022 and 5.0% in 2023.
  • The year-on-year growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP was 4.5% in Q4 2021, much higher than our previous forecast (2.5%) due to strongly recovered private consumption in response to the improvement of COVID-19 infection situation. This circumstance is applicable to Indonesia and Malaysia well. The growth rate of ASEAN4’s real GDP in 2021 turned out to be 3.5%. Rapid increases in energy prices will negatively affect private consumption in Thailand and the Philippines whose energy self-sufficient ratios are low. In addition, Russian tourists to ASEAN4 countries will disappear. They accounted for a significant portion of foreign tourists to Thailand especially. Negative impacts of these drawbacks are expected to be limited as far as those on the ASEAN4 economy as a whole are concerned. The real GDP growth rate is projected to be 5.6% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023.
  • The prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine War has the potential to prevent mineral and food resources prices from decreasing, with negative implications for private-sector demand growth in the Chinese and ASEAN4’s economies not only by pushing inflation up but also by distorting the operation of international trade and specialization.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2022/06/14

China’s Zero-COVID Policy Puts Downward Pressures on China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2022 forecast 2022Q2-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABAAkira TANAKA

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA