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Recession Indicator

December: The Recession Indicator marked 5.0%

- The Leading Index rose for three consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/02/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in December released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marked 5.0%, and remains low levels, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for three consecutive months, due to improvements in sales forecast of small business, new job offers, the inventory ratio of final demand goods, and others. However, given that COVID-19 patients increased rapidly with the emergence of Omicron in January and it resulted in short supply of auto parts, economic outlook may receive negative effects.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (December 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/05/12

March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/04/08

February: The Recession Indicator rose to 65.7%

- The Indicator rose to near warning level

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/03/09

January: The Recession Indicator rose to 24.7%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/02/08

December: The Recession Indicator marked 5.0%

- The Leading Index rose for three consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda