December: The Recession Indicator marked 5.0%
－ The Leading Index rose for three consecutive months
The Recession Indicator for Japan in December released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marked 5.0%, and remains low levels, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for three consecutive months, due to improvements in sales forecast of small business, new job offers, the inventory ratio of final demand goods, and others. However, given that COVID-19 patients increased rapidly with the emergence of Omicron in January and it resulted in short supply of auto parts, economic outlook may receive negative effects.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (December 2021)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.
－ The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.
－ New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement
－ A wide range of underlying statistics improve, the probability is below the warning level
－ The probability is above the warning level again