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Recession Indicator

December: The Recession Indicator marked 5.0%

- The Leading Index rose for three consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda


  The Recession Indicator for Japan in December released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marked 5.0%, and remains low levels, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data rose for three consecutive months, due to improvements in sales forecast of small business, new job offers, the inventory ratio of final demand goods, and others. However, given that COVID-19 patients increased rapidly with the emergence of Omicron in January and it resulted in short supply of auto parts, economic outlook may receive negative effects.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (December 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.


July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda


June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda


May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda


April: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.9%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda


March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda