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Recession Indicator

December: The Recession Indicator rose to 23.7%

- The leading index fell for the first time in seven months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2021/02/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 23.7% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data declined for the first time in seven months, due to deteriorations in inventory ratio of final demand goods, consumer confidence, sales forecast of small businesses, and others. Although the recession probability is still below 67%, which is a reference level of recession, consumer sentiment in January get chilled further following declaration of a state of emergency, and economic outlook is highly uncertain.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (December 2020)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2021/10/08

August: The Recession Indicator moved up to 35.7%

- The Leading Index fell for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator moved up to 19.6%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in two months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2021/08/10

June: The Recession Indicator fell to 5.7%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in two months

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator moved up to 22.1%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in a year

Takashi MIYAZAKI

2021/06/08

April: The Recession Indicator marks 1.4%

- The Leading Index rose for 11 consecutive months

Takashi MIYAZAKI