Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4
JCER released September 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- China's real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 turned to be positive of 3.2% from a negative one, -6.8%, in the previous quarter. Consumption recovered due to the resumption of normal economic activities that involve commuting and traveling, and supportive policy packages. China will continue to recover steadily thanks to the increase in consumption, the growth of the central and local governments’ infrastructure investment, and the progress of “Made in China 2025.” The GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.3% and 9.2% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
- ASEAN4’s real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 fell sharply due to the large-scale lockdown. After Q3 2020, some remains of the lockdown are likely to weaken the economic recovery. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is projected to be -4.6%. It will firmly rebound and become to 6.6% in 2021 partly thanks to China’s steady economic recovery.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1
―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1
―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1
Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 Issue 2019-2035
―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 forecast 2019Q4-2022Q1