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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (September 2020 forecast /2020Q3-2022Q1)

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist
   
Takuto IREI Trainee Economist
   

2020/09/15

JCER released September 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 turned to be positive of 3.2% from a negative one, -6.8%, in the previous quarter. Consumption recovered due to the resumption of normal economic activities that involve commuting and traveling, and supportive policy packages. China will continue to recover steadily thanks to the increase in consumption, the growth of the central and local governments’ infrastructure investment, and the progress of “Made in China 2025.” The GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.3% and 9.2% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
  • ASEAN4’s real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 fell sharply due to the large-scale lockdown. After Q3 2020, some remains of the lockdown are likely to weaken the economic recovery. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is projected to be -4.6%. It will firmly rebound and become to 6.6% in 2021 partly thanks to China’s steady economic recovery.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2022/06/14

China’s Zero-COVID Policy Puts Downward Pressures on China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2022 forecast 2022Q2-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABAAkira TANAKA

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA