Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4
JCER released September 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- China's real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 turned to be positive of 3.2% from a negative one, -6.8%, in the previous quarter. Consumption recovered due to the resumption of normal economic activities that involve commuting and traveling, and supportive policy packages. China will continue to recover steadily thanks to the increase in consumption, the growth of the central and local governments’ infrastructure investment, and the progress of “Made in China 2025.” The GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.3% and 9.2% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
- ASEAN4’s real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 fell sharply due to the large-scale lockdown. After Q3 2020, some remains of the lockdown are likely to weaken the economic recovery. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is projected to be -4.6%. It will firmly rebound and become to 6.6% in 2021 partly thanks to China’s steady economic recovery.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1
-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035
-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1