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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (September 2020 forecast /2020Q3-2022Q1)

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist
   
Takuto IREI Trainee Economist
   

2020/09/15

JCER released September 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 turned to be positive of 3.2% from a negative one, -6.8%, in the previous quarter. Consumption recovered due to the resumption of normal economic activities that involve commuting and traveling, and supportive policy packages. China will continue to recover steadily thanks to the increase in consumption, the growth of the central and local governments’ infrastructure investment, and the progress of “Made in China 2025.” The GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.3% and 9.2% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
  • ASEAN4’s real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 fell sharply due to the large-scale lockdown. After Q3 2020, some remains of the lockdown are likely to weaken the economic recovery. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is projected to be -4.6%. It will firmly rebound and become to 6.6% in 2021 partly thanks to China’s steady economic recovery.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2021/09/15

A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI

2021/03/16

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

2020/12/10

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035

Masashi UEHARAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURA/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Go YAMADA