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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (September 2020 forecast /2020Q3-2022Q1)

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist
   
Takuto IREI Trainee Economist
   

2020/09/15

JCER released September 2020 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 turned to be positive of 3.2% from a negative one, -6.8%, in the previous quarter. Consumption recovered due to the resumption of normal economic activities that involve commuting and traveling, and supportive policy packages. China will continue to recover steadily thanks to the increase in consumption, the growth of the central and local governments’ infrastructure investment, and the progress of “Made in China 2025.” The GDP growth rate is projected to be 2.3% and 9.2% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
  • ASEAN4’s real GDP growth rate in Q2 2020 fell sharply due to the large-scale lockdown. After Q3 2020, some remains of the lockdown are likely to weaken the economic recovery. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is projected to be -4.6%. It will firmly rebound and become to 6.6% in 2021 partly thanks to China’s steady economic recovery.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2021/03/16

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

2020/12/10

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035

Masashi UEHARAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURA/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Go YAMADA

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist

2020/06/05

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Economist:Tetsuo KAN/ Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist