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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (August 2019 forecast /2019Q3-2021Q2)

Economies decelerate due to prolonged US-China Trade Friction

―The effects of China's economic stimulus measures remain limited―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist
   
Ryo Nemoto Trainee Economist
   

2019/08/28

JCER released August 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's real GDP growth rate slowed to 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The effects of China's economic stimulus measures, which mainly focus on large-scale tax cuts and infrastructure construction, have not yet materialized. Industrial production also fell to its lowest level in 17 years. Increased uncertainty amid the prolonged US-China trade friction will weigh on China's growth, hence the 2020 GDP outlook has been revised downward.
  • In ASEAN4, consumption will remain steady while there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to the weakness of the Chinese economy. The 2020 GDP outlook has been lowered from our previous forecast. Local authorities are working on stimulus measures, such as cutting interest rates (Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines).

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO