Economies decelerate due to prolonged US-China Trade Friction
―The effects of China's economic stimulus measures remain limited―
JCER released August 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- China's real GDP growth rate slowed to 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The effects of China's economic stimulus measures, which mainly focus on large-scale tax cuts and infrastructure construction, have not yet materialized. Industrial production also fell to its lowest level in 17 years. Increased uncertainty amid the prolonged US-China trade friction will weigh on China's growth, hence the 2020 GDP outlook has been revised downward.
- In ASEAN4, consumption will remain steady while there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to the weakness of the Chinese economy. The 2020 GDP outlook has been lowered from our previous forecast. Local authorities are working on stimulus measures, such as cutting interest rates (Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines).
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1
―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1
―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1
Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 Issue 2019-2035
―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 forecast 2019Q4-2022Q1