Economies decelerate due to prolonged US-China Trade Friction

―The effects of China's economic stimulus measures remain limited―

Research Director：Shinichi NISHIOKA

  Chief Forecaster

Deputy Director：Eriko TAKAHASHI

  Senior Economist

Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist

   

Ryo Nemoto Trainee Economist

   

2019/08/28

JCER released August 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

• China's real GDP growth rate slowed to 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The effects of China's economic stimulus measures, which mainly focus on large-scale tax cuts and infrastructure construction, have not yet materialized. Industrial production also fell to its lowest level in 17 years. Increased uncertainty amid the prolonged US-China trade friction will weigh on China's growth, hence the 2020 GDP outlook has been revised downward.
• In ASEAN4, consumption will remain steady while there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to the weakness of the Chinese economy. The 2020 GDP outlook has been lowered from our previous forecast. Local authorities are working on stimulus measures, such as cutting interest rates (Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines).

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】