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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (August 2019 forecast /2019Q3-2021Q2)

Economies decelerate due to prolonged US-China Trade Friction

―The effects of China's economic stimulus measures remain limited―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist
   
Ryo Nemoto Trainee Economist
   

2019/08/28

JCER released August 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's real GDP growth rate slowed to 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The effects of China's economic stimulus measures, which mainly focus on large-scale tax cuts and infrastructure construction, have not yet materialized. Industrial production also fell to its lowest level in 17 years. Increased uncertainty amid the prolonged US-China trade friction will weigh on China's growth, hence the 2020 GDP outlook has been revised downward.
  • In ASEAN4, consumption will remain steady while there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to the weakness of the Chinese economy. The 2020 GDP outlook has been lowered from our previous forecast. Local authorities are working on stimulus measures, such as cutting interest rates (Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines).

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI

2021/03/16

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

2020/12/10

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035

Masashi UEHARAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURA/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Go YAMADA

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist