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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (August 2019 forecast /2019Q3-2021Q2)

Economies decelerate due to prolonged US-China Trade Friction

―The effects of China's economic stimulus measures remain limited―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist
   
Ryo Nemoto Trainee Economist
   

2019/08/28

JCER released August 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China's real GDP growth rate slowed to 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The effects of China's economic stimulus measures, which mainly focus on large-scale tax cuts and infrastructure construction, have not yet materialized. Industrial production also fell to its lowest level in 17 years. Increased uncertainty amid the prolonged US-China trade friction will weigh on China's growth, hence the 2020 GDP outlook has been revised downward.
  • In ASEAN4, consumption will remain steady while there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to the weakness of the Chinese economy. The 2020 GDP outlook has been lowered from our previous forecast. Local authorities are working on stimulus measures, such as cutting interest rates (Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines).

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist

2020/06/05

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Economist:Tetsuo KAN/ Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist

2020/03/03

New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist/ Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist

2019/12/05

Digital Asia under U.S.-China confrontation: the future of innovation and city economies

Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 Issue 2019-2035

Masashi UEHARAEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURATetsuo KAN/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Motohiko KITAHARAGo YAMADA

2019/12/03

China’s Economy continues to slow due to Limited Economic Measures

―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 forecast 2019Q4-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Mitsuki Shirasu Trainee Economist/ Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist