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Medium Term Economic Forecast (47th / FY2020-FY2035)

Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis

- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt
- Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”

Tatsuo KOBAYASHI
  Principal Economist
Sumio SARUYAMA
  Lead Economist
Katsuaki OCHIAI
  Specially Appointed Fellow

2020/08/11

 

The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) has revised its medium-term economic forecast on how the trajectory of economic growth will change with the coronavirus crisis. It was compared with the previous forecast released in March (Chart). On June 19, restrictions on domestic economic activity were completely lifted. However, can it return to the economy prior to the Covid-19 pandemic? A “nightmare scenario” was also considered in which a prolonged outbreak and intensified political and economic conflict between the United States (US) and China leads to deep global recession. In the baseline scenario, real GDP has been revised downward by about 2% compared to the previous forecast, but in the case of the nightmare scenario, it will fall by nearly 8%, and will constantly remain in negative growth from fiscal year (FY) 2029. Preventing a widespread second wave of Covid-19, developing therapeutic drugs/ vaccines, and establishing a system for international cooperation to mitigate and/or eliminate political and economic conflicts will be needed in order to avoid global depression.

Chart  Negative growth from FY 2029 onward in Nightmare Scenario

(Note) Forecasted by JCER for FY 2020 and beyond
(Source) National Accounts

2020/08/11

Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis

- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt
- Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHISumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAI

2019/04/25

Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/11/29

Investments Shift to Support Domestic Demand

- During an “Economic War of Attrition”-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/04/06

Economic Growth through Drastic Changes in How People Work

-A Society That Capitalizes on Longevity-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 44th FY2017-FY2030

Sumio SARUYAMASaeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIRyo HASUMI/ Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economis(Aflac)/ Azusa SUZUKI Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Representatives)

2018/02/22

Inter-generational Equity under the Increasing Longevity

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 44thSpecial Report

Sumio SARUYAMASaeko MAEDARyo HASUMI/ Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economist(Aflac)