Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis
- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt - Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”
2020/08/11
The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) has revised its medium-term economic forecast on how the trajectory of economic growth will change with the coronavirus crisis. It was compared with the previous forecast released in March (Chart). On June 19, restrictions on domestic economic activity were completely lifted. However, can it return to the economy prior to the Covid-19 pandemic? A “nightmare scenario” was also considered in which a prolonged outbreak and intensified political and economic conflict between the United States (US) and China leads to deep global recession. In the baseline scenario, real GDP has been revised downward by about 2% compared to the previous forecast, but in the case of the nightmare scenario, it will fall by nearly 8%, and will constantly remain in negative growth from fiscal year (FY) 2029. Preventing a widespread second wave of Covid-19, developing therapeutic drugs/ vaccines, and establishing a system for international cooperation to mitigate and/or eliminate political and economic conflicts will be needed in order to avoid global depression.
Chart Negative growth from FY 2029 onward in Nightmare Scenario 
(Note) Forecasted by JCER for FY 2020 and beyond
(Source) National Accounts
- 2023/04/20
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Promoting Innovation by Expanding Free Trade and Breaking Away from In-house Mentality
DX and human capital investment will get the Japanese economy on growth track again
Economic Forecast 49th FY2022-FY2035
- 2022/06/01
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Japan’s economy after Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Soaring resource prices, risk of zero growth in the mid-2020s - Tighter sanctions may cause negative growth - DX effective for both countering high resource prices and for improving productivity in medical and long-term care
Economic Forecast 48th FY2021-FY2035
- 2021/04/07
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Japan’s post-COVID economy
- DX acceleration is a path to green growth - Growth strategy under decarbonization constraints
Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035
- 2020/08/11
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Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis
- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt - Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”
Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035
- 2019/04/25
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Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand
～The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy～
Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030
