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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (December 2018 forecast /2018Q4-2021Q1)

Effects of Rate Hikes and Trade Friction Surfacing

―External and Domestic Demand Lacking Vigor―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Sachie OGAWA Trainee Economist
   
Hidekazu TAKAGI Trainee Economist
   
Haruka YANE
  Economist

2018/12/04

JCER released December 2018 forecast on Asian Economies. The original report in Japanese is here

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • 2018 Q3 GDP growth decelerated from Q2 due to lackluster external and domestic demand in China and ASEAN4. The outlook also looks grim based on ongoing trade friction and monetary policy tightening.
  • The 2019 GDP outlook for China has been revised downward, given the negative impact arising from trade friction with the U.S.
  • ASEAN4’s economic outlook for both 2018 and 2019 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Growth in Indonesia and Philippines for 2019 has been revised downward, taking into account the impact of the recent interest rate hikes to counter currency depreciation and trade friction. Thailand’s forecast has been revised upward supported by strong external demand. The growth trajectory of Malaysia has been revised downward, considering weak export growth.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】


(Note) Previous forecasts from August 2018 in parentheses. (Source) Haver Analytics, forecasts by JCER

This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.176.

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist

2020/06/05

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Economist:Tetsuo KAN/ Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist

2020/03/03

New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist/ Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist

2019/12/05

Digital Asia under U.S.-China confrontation: the future of innovation and city economies

Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 Issue 2019-2035

Masashi UEHARAEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURATetsuo KAN/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Motohiko KITAHARAGo YAMADA

2019/12/03

China’s Economy continues to slow due to Limited Economic Measures

―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 forecast 2019Q4-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Mitsuki Shirasu Trainee Economist/ Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist