Effects of Rate Hikes and Trade Friction Surfacing
―External and Domestic Demand Lacking Vigor―
JCER released December 2018 forecast on Asian Economies. The original report in Japanese is here.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- 2018 Q3 GDP growth decelerated from Q2 due to lackluster external and domestic demand in China and ASEAN4. The outlook also looks grim based on ongoing trade friction and monetary policy tightening.
- The 2019 GDP outlook for China has been revised downward, given the negative impact arising from trade friction with the U.S.
- ASEAN4’s economic outlook for both 2018 and 2019 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Growth in Indonesia and Philippines for 2019 has been revised downward, taking into account the impact of the recent interest rate hikes to counter currency depreciation and trade friction. Thailand’s forecast has been revised upward supported by strong external demand. The growth trajectory of Malaysia has been revised downward, considering weak export growth.
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
(Note) Previous forecasts from August 2018 in parentheses. (Source) Haver Analytics, forecasts by JCER
This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.176.
-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect
Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies
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Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1