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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (December 2018 forecast /2018Q4-2021Q1)

Effects of Rate Hikes and Trade Friction Surfacing

―External and Domestic Demand Lacking Vigor―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Sachie OGAWA Trainee Economist
   
Hidekazu TAKAGI Trainee Economist
   
Haruka YANE
  Economist

2018/12/04

JCER released December 2018 forecast on Asian Economies. The original report in Japanese is here

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • 2018 Q3 GDP growth decelerated from Q2 due to lackluster external and domestic demand in China and ASEAN4. The outlook also looks grim based on ongoing trade friction and monetary policy tightening.
  • The 2019 GDP outlook for China has been revised downward, given the negative impact arising from trade friction with the U.S.
  • ASEAN4’s economic outlook for both 2018 and 2019 has been lowered from our previous forecast. Growth in Indonesia and Philippines for 2019 has been revised downward, taking into account the impact of the recent interest rate hikes to counter currency depreciation and trade friction. Thailand’s forecast has been revised upward supported by strong external demand. The growth trajectory of Malaysia has been revised downward, considering weak export growth.

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】


(Note) Previous forecasts from August 2018 in parentheses. (Source) Haver Analytics, forecasts by JCER

This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.176.

2021/10/25

$1.7 trillion lost because of COVID-19 crisis in Asia

-- In 2020, the service industry suffered a serious setback
-- Growing debt may have a medium-term negative effect

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Daisuke MARUYAMA Economist/ Tetsuaki TAKANO

2021/09/15

A Pause in Economic Recovery Caused by the Delta Variant

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2021 forecast 2021Q3-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA

2021/06/15

Robust External Demand will Support China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2021 forecast 2021Q2-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKATakashi MIYAZAKI

2021/03/16

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist