February: The Recession Indicator marks 1.2%
－ The Leading Index rose to the highest level since June 2018
The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 1.2% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for two consecutive months, due to improvements in consumer confidence, commodity price index, new housing construction started, and others. The Leading Index has risen to the highest level since June 2018, which is before October 2018 that is considered to be a peak provisionally, and the recession probability is significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (February 2021)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months
－ The Indicator rose to near warning level
－ The Leading Index fell for the first time in four months
－ The Leading Index rose for three consecutive months
－ The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months