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Recession Indicator

February: The Recession Indicator marks 1.2%

- The Leading Index rose to the highest level since June 2018

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2021/04/08

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 1.2% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for two consecutive months, due to improvements in consumer confidence, commodity price index, new housing construction started, and others. The Leading Index has risen to the highest level since June 2018, which is before October 2018 that is considered to be a peak provisionally, and the recession probability is significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (February 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/11/10

September: The Recession Indicator rose to 75.8%

- Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/10/11

August: The Recession Indicator fell to 54.9%

- Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/08/09

June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/07/08

May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda