February: The Recession Indicator marks 1.2%
－ The Leading Index rose to the highest level since June 2018
The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 1.2% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for two consecutive months, due to improvements in consumer confidence, commodity price index, new housing construction started, and others. The Leading Index has risen to the highest level since June 2018, which is before October 2018 that is considered to be a peak provisionally, and the recession probability is significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (February 2021)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ Deterioration of production pushed down the Leading Index
－ Improvement of consumer confidence pushed up the Leading Index
－ Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index
－ "Early warning signal" alarmed
－ Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.