February: The Recession Indicator rose to 65.7%
－ The Indicator rose to near warning level
The Recession Indicator for Japan in February released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 65.7%, from 59.4% on revised retroactivity value in January (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data fell for two consecutive months, due to deteriorations in the inventory ratio of final demand goods, new job offers, consumer confidence, and others. In February, the number of Omicron patients reached a peak and many prefectures implemented pre-emergency measures, which worsened consumer confidence. In March, the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine will become obvious, therefore The Recession Indicator may remain high level.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (February 2022)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
－ Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index
－ "Early warning signal" alarmed
－ Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.
－ The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months
－ The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months