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Recession Indicator

February: The Recession Indicator rose to 65.7%

- The Indicator rose to near warning level

Yoshiki Shimoda


  The Recession Indicator for Japan in February released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 65.7%, from 59.4% on revised retroactivity value in January (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data fell for two consecutive months, due to deteriorations in the inventory ratio of final demand goods, new job offers, consumer confidence, and others. In February, the number of Omicron patients reached a peak and many prefectures implemented pre-emergency measures, which worsened consumer confidence. In March, the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine will become obvious, therefore The Recession Indicator may remain high level.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (February 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.


July: The Recession Indicator rose to 84.7%

- Deterioration in consumer confidence pushed down the Leading Index

Yoshiki Shimoda


June: The Recession Indicator rose to 71.1%

- "Early warning signal" alarmed

Yoshiki Shimoda


May: The Recession Indicator rose to 45.2%

- Chinese lockdowns pushed down production indicator.

Yoshiki Shimoda


April: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.9%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda


March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda