February: The Recession Indicator rose to 65.7%
－ The Indicator rose to near warning level
The Recession Indicator for Japan in February released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 65.7%, from 59.4% on revised retroactivity value in January (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data fell for two consecutive months, due to deteriorations in the inventory ratio of final demand goods, new job offers, consumer confidence, and others. In February, the number of Omicron patients reached a peak and many prefectures implemented pre-emergency measures, which worsened consumer confidence. In March, the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine will become obvious, therefore The Recession Indicator may remain high level.
【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (February 2022)】
【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】
* The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.
March: The Recession Indicator marks 85.7%
－ The probability is above the warning level again
February: The Recession Indicator falls to 63.9%
－ The probability is below the warning level for a recession
January: The Recession Indicator marks 94.0%
－ The Leading Index is at its lowest level in about two years
December: The Recession Indicator reached 92.3%
－ The highest level since November 2019
November: The Recession Indicator rose to 80.8%
－ "Early warning signal" alarmed again