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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (June 2019 forecast /2019Q2-2021Q1)

Increasing Downward Pressure on Economies as Trade Friction Intensifies

―Export Stagnation a Concern while Domestic Demand Remains Strong―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Economist :Tetsuo KAN
  Economist

2019/06/06

JCER released June 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China’s 2019 Q1 GDP rose 6.4% (y/y), unchanged from the previous quarter, as the effects of the stimulus packages began to materialize. Meanwhile, ASEAN4 economies slowed due to weak exports.
  • The 2019 GDP outlook for China is in line with the government’s growth target (6.0-6.5%) supported by large-scale economic measures, though downward pressure on the economy is increasing with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute.
  • Consumption will remain steady in ASEAN4 with price stability, however, there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to US-China friction. The 2019 GDP outlook has been revised downward. Local authorities have responded to the economic slowdown by introducing economic stimulus measures (Thailand) and cutting interest rates (Malaysia, the Philippines).

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.178.

2021/03/16

Continuing Growth for China, Slow Recover for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2021 forecast 2021Q1-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Daichi HARASAWA Trainee Economist

2020/12/17

Robust Expansion for China, Soft Recovery for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2020 forecast 2020Q4-2023Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist/ Daisuke MARUYAMA Trainee Economist

2020/12/10

Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?

-- China overtakes U.S. in 2028-29

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2020 Issue 2020-2035

Masashi UEHARAAkira TANAKATamaki SAKURA/ Aiko MUNAKATA Economist/ Go YAMADA

2020/09/15

Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist

2020/06/05

China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Economist:Tetsuo KAN/ Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist