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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (June 2019 forecast /2019Q2-2021Q1)

Increasing Downward Pressure on Economies as Trade Friction Intensifies

―Export Stagnation a Concern while Domestic Demand Remains Strong―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Economist :Tetsuo KAN


JCER released June 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China’s 2019 Q1 GDP rose 6.4% (y/y), unchanged from the previous quarter, as the effects of the stimulus packages began to materialize. Meanwhile, ASEAN4 economies slowed due to weak exports.
  • The 2019 GDP outlook for China is in line with the government’s growth target (6.0-6.5%) supported by large-scale economic measures, though downward pressure on the economy is increasing with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute.
  • Consumption will remain steady in ASEAN4 with price stability, however, there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to US-China friction. The 2019 GDP outlook has been revised downward. Local authorities have responded to the economic slowdown by introducing economic stimulus measures (Thailand) and cutting interest rates (Malaysia, the Philippines).

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】


This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.178.


Economic Recovery – Solid for China, Soft for ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Tomohiko KOZAWA Trainee Economist/ Takuto IREI Trainee Economist


China in 2020 will be Negative Growth due to Weak External Demand

―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Economist:Tetsuo KAN/ Aiko Munakata Trainee Economist


New Coronavirus disrupts China’s income doubling goal

―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Yusuke Masuda Trainee Economist/ Tatsuya Wakasugi Trainee Economist


Digital Asia under U.S.-China confrontation: the future of innovation and city economies

Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 Issue 2019-2035



China’s Economy continues to slow due to Limited Economic Measures

―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 forecast 2019Q4-2022Q1

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA/ Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Mitsuki Shirasu Trainee Economist/ Shengkai Huang Trainee Economist