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Asia Forecast Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies (June 2019 forecast /2019Q2-2021Q1)

Increasing Downward Pressure on Economies as Trade Friction Intensifies

―Export Stagnation a Concern while Domestic Demand Remains Strong―

Research Director:Shinichi NISHIOKA
  Chief Forecaster
Deputy Director:Eriko TAKAHASHI
  Senior Economist
Economist :Tetsuo KAN
  Economist

2019/06/06

JCER released June 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.

China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook 

  • China’s 2019 Q1 GDP rose 6.4% (y/y), unchanged from the previous quarter, as the effects of the stimulus packages began to materialize. Meanwhile, ASEAN4 economies slowed due to weak exports.
  • The 2019 GDP outlook for China is in line with the government’s growth target (6.0-6.5%) supported by large-scale economic measures, though downward pressure on the economy is increasing with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute.
  • Consumption will remain steady in ASEAN4 with price stability, however, there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to US-China friction. The 2019 GDP outlook has been revised downward. Local authorities have responded to the economic slowdown by introducing economic stimulus measures (Thailand) and cutting interest rates (Malaysia, the Philippines).

【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】

 

This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.178.

2022/06/14

China’s Zero-COVID Policy Puts Downward Pressures on China and ASEAN4

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2022 forecast 2022Q2-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABAAkira TANAKA

2022/03/17

Currently Limited Negative Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2022 forecast 2022Q1-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Riki KOHANA Trainee Economist

2022/02/18

Sweden ranks first globally in Digital Potential

-- Japan ranks 16th in JCER’s newly developed index

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies

Eriko TAKAHASHIAtsushi TOMIYAMA

2021/12/22

Moderate Recovery in China and ASEAN4 Supported by Private Consumption

Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2021 forecast 2021Q4-2024Q1

Research Director:Kei-Ichiro INABA/ Deputy Director:Akira TANAKA/ Asia Forecast Team:Eriko TAKAHASHI/ Taiki TANAKA Trainee Economist

2021/12/15

China to become the world’s largest economy in 2033

-- Korea set to overtake Japan in 2027 in terms of GDP per capita

Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies December 2021 Issue 2021-2035

Director:Atsushi TOMIYAMATetsuaki TAKANOEriko TAKAHASHITamaki SAKURA/ Daisuke MARUYAMA/ Masashi UEHARAGo YAMADA