Increasing Downward Pressure on Economies as Trade Friction Intensifies
―Export Stagnation a Concern while Domestic Demand Remains Strong―
JCER released June 2019 forecast on Asian Economies.
China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook
- China’s 2019 Q1 GDP rose 6.4% (y/y), unchanged from the previous quarter, as the effects of the stimulus packages began to materialize. Meanwhile, ASEAN4 economies slowed due to weak exports.
- The 2019 GDP outlook for China is in line with the government’s growth target (6.0-6.5%) supported by large-scale economic measures, though downward pressure on the economy is increasing with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute.
- Consumption will remain steady in ASEAN4 with price stability, however, there is concern about the stagnation of exports due to US-China friction. The 2019 GDP outlook has been revised downward. Local authorities have responded to the economic slowdown by introducing economic stimulus measures (Thailand) and cutting interest rates (Malaysia, the Philippines).
【China/ASEAN4 Economic Outlook】
This forecast is a part of the Short Term forecast No.178.
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies September 2020 forecast 2020Q3-2022Q1
―ASEAN4 is severely Effected by Lockdown―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies June 2020 forecast 2020Q2-2022Q1
―Negative effects spread to ASEAN4―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies March 2020 forecast 2020Q1-2022Q1
Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 Issue 2019-2035
―Relocating production bases from China will have positive effects for ASEAN4―
Short-term Forecast on Asian Economies December 2019 forecast 2019Q4-2022Q1