Back to List
Medium Term Medium-Term Economic Forecast (45th / FY2018-FY2030)

Investments Shift to Support Domestic Demand

- During an “Economic War of Attrition”-

Saeko MAEDA
  Principal Economist
Katsuaki OCHIAI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Akira TANAKA
  Senior Economist
Ryo HASUMI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)
   
Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)
   
Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)
   

2018/11/29

 

JCER Medium-Term Economic Forecast Team

Underpinned by strong economic conditions overseas, the Japanese economy has recently continued its expansion. However, the sustainability of this expansion has come into question, and mid-term economic forecasts require cautious observation.
One reason for this not leading to strong growth is an external factor: the cooling down of the global economy. While there are protectionist policies in some countries that have already had an impact in the short term, there is the risk towards a renewed global economic war of attrition.
Looking at the domestic environment, consumption and investment structures are changing with aging population and the diffusion of new technologies. Because of the increase in the demand for human services such as medical treatment and nursing care in particular, if productivity is not progressed sufficiently amid the decreasing working population, the country will not be able to meet such an increased demand. Thus, it is necessary to change the labor-intensive industry structure via new technologies in fields including ICT and robotics. Although domestic capital investments with labor-saving effects have been on the rise due to increasing corporate revenues recently, these investments have been slack compared to the revenue growth. If businesses prospect lower mid- to long-term economic growth and hesitate to invest in new technologies and human capital, it is unlikely that we will overcome shrinking economy due to labor force shortage.
With the foreseen tough economic conditions overseas, investments tailored to domestic structural changes as well as measures for the activation of human resources will be needed. Focusing the efforts on balancing domestic supply and demand will in turn lead to economic stimulation.

2019/04/25

Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/11/29

Investments Shift to Support Domestic Demand

- During an “Economic War of Attrition”-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/04/06

Economic Growth through Drastic Changes in How People Work

-A Society That Capitalizes on Longevity-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 44th FY2017-FY2030

Sumio SARUYAMASaeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIRyo HASUMI/ Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economis(Aflac)/ Azusa SUZUKI Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Representatives)

2018/02/22

Inter-generational Equity under the Increasing Longevity

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 44thSpecial Report

Sumio SARUYAMASaeko MAEDARyo HASUMI/ Kazuki KUROIWA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2017/12/18

Slow US Wage Growth Explained

- Changing Demographic & Employment Trend

Medium-Term Economic Forecast for the Japanese Economy 44th Special Report

Eriko TAKAHASHI