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Recession Indicator

January: The Recession Indicator marks 2.7%

- The leading index rose for the first time in two months

Takashi MIYAZAKI
  Senior Economist

2021/03/09

  The Recession Indicator for Japan released by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) marks 2.7% (Figure 1). The Leading Index as an underlying data rose for the first time in two months, due to improvements in inventory ratios of final demand goods and of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, commodity price index, and others. Accordingly, the recession probability remains low level, significantly below 67%, which is a signal of recession. Although consumer sentiment deteriorated following the declaration of the state of emergency, indicators in manufacturing industry maintaining relatively steady and financial markets pushed up the Leading Index due to expectations for the normalization of economic activities by spreading vaccines.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (January 2021)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2023/11/09

September: The Recession Indicator was 56.5%

- Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/10/10

August: The Recession Indicator was 31.7%

- Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator was 82.7%

- Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/08/08

June: The Recession Indicator was 44.5%

- The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/07/10

May: The Recession Indicator fell to 37.1% further

- New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement

Takashi MIYAZAKI