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Recession Indicator

January: The Recession Indicator rose to 24.7%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in four months

Yoshiki SHIMODA
  Economist

2022/03/09

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in January released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 24.7%, from 9.5% on revised retroactivity value in December (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data fell for the first time in four months, due to deteriorations in consumer confidence, the inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, sales forecast of small business and others. The COVID-19 variant 'omicron' surge after the new year pushed down the indicator related to consumption and production. Although the probability is still below the 67% level, which is a reference point of signaling a recession, there are concerns about greater downside risks to the economy, such as higher resource prices and financial market turmoil which are due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (January 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2023/11/09

September: The Recession Indicator was 56.5%

- Deterioration of the employment situation could be a factor.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/10/10

August: The Recession Indicator was 31.7%

- Huge probability reduction contributed by the well-performed indices of an inventory ratio

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/09/08

July: The Recession Indicator was 82.7%

- Exceeding the warning level due to the stock pile-up resulting from the dismal foreign demands.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/08/08

June: The Recession Indicator was 44.5%

- The probability almost stayed at the previous month's level.

Yutaro SHIMAMURA

2023/07/10

May: The Recession Indicator fell to 37.1% further

- New housing construction and stock prices contributed to the improvement

Takashi MIYAZAKI