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Recession Indicator

January: The Recession Indicator rose to 24.7%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda
  Economist

2022/03/09

  The Recession Indicator for Japan in January released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) rose to 24.7%, from 9.5% on revised retroactivity value in December (Figure 1). The Leading Index as the underlying data fell for the first time in four months, due to deteriorations in consumer confidence, the inventory ratio of producer goods for mining and manufacturing, sales forecast of small business and others. The COVID-19 variant 'omicron' surge after the new year pushed down the indicator related to consumption and production. Although the probability is still below the 67% level, which is a reference point of signaling a recession, there are concerns about greater downside risks to the economy, such as higher resource prices and financial market turmoil which are due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

【Figure 1. The Recession Indicator (January 2022)】

【Table 1. The Recession Indicator and the Leading Index (over the last year)】

  * The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. Please refer to here for more details.

2022/05/12

March: The Recession Indicator fell to 25.8%

- The Leading Index rose for the first time in three months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/04/08

February: The Recession Indicator rose to 65.7%

- The Indicator rose to near warning level

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/03/09

January: The Recession Indicator rose to 24.7%

- The Leading Index fell for the first time in four months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/02/08

December: The Recession Indicator marked 5.0%

- The Leading Index rose for three consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda

2022/01/12

November: The Recession Indicator fell to 10.0%

- The Leading Index rose for two consecutive months

Yoshiki Shimoda