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Medium Term Economic Forecast Economic Forecast (47th / FY2020-FY2035)

Japan’s post-COVID economy

- DX acceleration is a path to green growth
- Growth strategy under decarbonization constraints

Tatsuo KOBAYASHI
  Principal Economist
Tetsuaki TAKANO
  Senior Economist
Sumio SARUYAMA
  Lead Economist
Katsuaki OCHIAI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Kyoko DEGUCHI
  Principal Economist
Hirofumi KAWASAKI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Tatsujiro SUZUKI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Hikaru KOBAYASHI
  Specially Appointed Fellow
Yuichi ARITA Trainee Economist (The House of Representatives)
   
Tetsuji NAKAHARA Trainee Economist (HIGASHI-NIPPON BANK)
   
Shunya MATSUO Trainee Economist (CHUBU Electric Power)
   

2021/04/07

 

The spread of the novel coronavirus has had a significant impact on economies and societies worldwide. Japan, which already faces structural problems such as population decline and aging, is now facing additional economic constraints following Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s declaration that the country will decarbonize. Digital transformation (DX) of society is the key to maintaining growth in such a scenario. The 47th medium-term economic forecast explores the path to green growth through DX.

Fig. Positive growth rate will be maintained only under the reform scenario

Source: Cabinet Office “Annual Report on National Accounts” forecasted by JCER after FY2020.

2022/06/01

Japan’s economy after Russian invasion of Ukraine

- Soaring resource prices, risk of zero growth in the mid-2020s
- Tighter sanctions may cause negative growth
- DX effective for both countering high resource prices and for improving productivity in medical and long-term care

Economic Forecast 48th FY2021-FY2035

2021/04/07

Japan’s post-COVID economy

- DX acceleration is a path to green growth
- Growth strategy under decarbonization constraints

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHITetsuaki TAKANOSumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAIKyoko DEGUCHIHirofumi KAWASAKITatsujiro SUZUKIHikaru KOBAYASHI/ Yuichi ARITA Trainee Economist (The House of Representatives)/ Tetsuji NAKAHARA Trainee Economist (HIGASHI-NIPPON BANK)/ Shunya MATSUO Trainee Economist (CHUBU Electric Power)

2020/08/11

Economy before and after the Coronavirus Crisis

- Real GDP level will fall by 2% due to rapid expansion of debt
- Prolonged virus outbreak and intensified international friction will result in “nightmare scenario”

Economic Forecast 47th FY2020-FY2035

Tatsuo KOBAYASHISumio SARUYAMAKatsuaki OCHIAI

2019/04/25

Toward Human Capital Investment to Support Domestic Demand

~The Key to Growth in a Shrinking Economy~

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)

2018/11/29

Investments Shift to Support Domestic Demand

- During an “Economic War of Attrition”-

Medium-Term Economic Forecast 45th FY2018-FY2030

Saeko MAEDAKatsuaki OCHIAIAkira TANAKARyo HASUMI/ Chihiro SATO Trainee Economist(Secretariat of the House of Councillors)/ Takahisa HONDA Trainee Economist(Nikkei Inc.)/ Shogo YAMASHITA Trainee Economist(Aflac)