JCER Financial Stress Index is 0.034, released on December 27, 2021
－ Bank of Japan decided to maintain large-scale easing, while CP and corporate bond buying measures to be phased out
－ Financial stress remains low, but concerns about the Omicron variant are rising
2022/01/31
Postponement of Publication of JCER Financial Stress Index The data for the "Dollar Funding Premium (yen basis, 1 year)", one of the indicators comprising the JCER Financial Stress Index, is no longer available due to the permanent suspension of LIBOR publication. As a result, we have decided to revise the calculation method of the JCER Financial Stress Index. The release of the JCER Financial Stress Index for January 2022 will be postponed in order to consider alternative indicators and data continuity. We apologize for any inconvenience to those who regularly refer to this index, and we thank you for your understanding.
The JCER Financial Stress Index for Japan is an indicator based on daily market data to capture the rise of financial systemic risk, which could cause a malfunction of the entire financial system and adversely affect the real economy. Since this index is based on market data, it is possible to quantitatively grasp financial stress in near real time.
The index is constructed by selecting three individual indicators from the following five sub-markets: (1) stock market, (2) money market, (3) bond market, (4) financial intermediaries (banking sector), and (5) foreign exchange market. The index takes a value between 0 and 1, and higher value imply higher financial stress.
The latest value: 0.034 <+0.005 from the last weekend>
(As of December 24, 2021)
The index is designed to detect a recurrence of financial system instability in the late 1990s in Japan and of the global financial crisis of 2007-08. With reference to the “Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress” by European Central Bank (ECB), this is created by compositing the following 15 financial market data, such as stock price and its volatility, bond yield spreads, and exchange rate changes.
Stock market: Volatility of TOPIX (absolute value of log return), Ratio of TOPIX to its highest value in the past two years, Liquidity indicator based on trading volume
Money market: Spread between 3-month TIBOR and 3-month Treasury yields, Repo rate, Dollar funding premium (yen basis, 1 year)
Bond market: Volatility of 10-year government bonds (absolute value of change in yield), Swap spread (difference between 2-year swap rate and 2-year government bond yield), BBB rated corporate bond spread
Financial intermediaries (banking sector): Specific shock on bank stocks (estimating the variance of the residuals obtained by regressing the returns of the bank stock index on the returns of TOPIX using the GARCH (1,1) model), Ratio of TOPIX banking stock index to its highest value in the past two years, Banking sector bond spreads
Foreign exchange market: Volatility in yen/dollar exchange rate (absolute value of log return), Volatility in yen/euro exchange rate (absolute value of log return), Volatility in yen/pound exchange rate (absolute value of log return)
For more details of this index, please refer to the following reports and literature.
Japan Center for Economic Research, 2019. “Risks in the BOJ’s ETF Purchases and Regional Financial Institutions - A stress event could reignite financial system anxiety,” FY 2019 Financial Research Report II: Overhauling Financial Risks in Japan (No. 41), February 12, 2020. (members only).
Holló, D., Kremer, M. and Lo Duca, M., 2012. “CISS - A Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress in the Financial System,” Working Paper Series, No. 1426, European Central Bank, March 2012.
Given that the stress on financial markets due to a spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has calmed down compared to the past few months, we change the operation of this index which has released weekly so far. Henceforth, we update the index once a month in principle, and release it on the last Monday (the next business day if it is a holiday). When significant fluctuations in the financial markets occur, we are to update and release the index temporarily.
- 2023/11/07
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JCER Financial Stress Index is 0.056, released on November 7, 2023
－BOJ relaxes yield curve control, Fed's rate-hike phase expected to end
－Financial stress maintains a low level since the yen's depreciation is stopped due to narrowing interest rate difference between Japan and the U.S. - 2023/09/25
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JCER Financial Stress Index is 0.050, released on September 25, 2023
－BOJ continues with current monetary easing, Fed leaves interest rates unchanged but expects an additional hike before the end of the year
－Financial stress remains a low level with the yen slowly weakening and stock prices remaining at high levels - 2023/07/31
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JCER Financial Stress Index is 0.064, released on July 31, 2023
－ Both of central banks in the U.S. and Euro area hiked interest rate, BOJ also made YCC policy more flexible and raise the upper bound of long-term interest rate
－ Financial stress maintains a low level as weakening yen and high stock prices are maintained, but uncertainty about outlook still remains - 2023/06/26
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JCER Financial Stress Index is 0.076, released on June 26, 2023
－ TOPIX keeps at its highest level in about 33 years and financial stress remains a low level
－ Banking stocks are steady on expectations of an early revision of the BOJ's easing policy, while the yen depreciates at its weakest level in about seven months - 2023/05/29
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JCER Financial Stress Index is 0.109, released on May 29, 2023
－ TOPIX is at its highest level in about 33 years since the bubble period and financial stress keeps a low level
－ While Japanese yen was weakening due to the widening interest rate differential, the U.S. debt ceiling issue reached a tentative agreement to avert a default on U.S. Treasuries
