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Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies (April 2016 issue /2016~2018)

ASEAN5 4.3%, India 7.7% for 2016, speed up into 2018

Setback of reforms, further China slowdown seen as big risks
New JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA
  Principal Economist
Project Leader:Kenji YUASA
  Lead Economist

2016/04/18

  Five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and India are expected to keep current economic growth level in 2016 as the Chinese economy continues to slow down. Government spending and investment will support growth while exports remain sluggish. India, Indonesia and the Philippines are likely to grow at more than 5%. Setbacks in expectations for economic reform, the Chinese economy's further slowdown and market turmoil are seen as big risks-these are the findings of the first JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (April 21, 2016)

Consensus201604-tableENG

 Main points of the survey

  • The growth forecast for the ASEAN5 is 4.3% for 2016, up from 4.2% in 2015.
  • The forecast is 7.7% for India for 2016/17, up from 7.5% in 2015/16.
  • 2016 growth rate to increase in Indonesia, Philippines, India; down in Malaysia.
  • Public spending, investment and consumption to support the economies.
  • Exports remain sluggish in all countries.
  • Growth rates expected to go up through 2018 for both the ASEAN5 and India.
  • Further slowdown expected for China during this period.

 List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, department head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior economist, Center for Information and Development Studies

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Maslynnawati Ahmad, economist, CIMB Investment Bank; Lim Chee Sing, group chief economist, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head of economic research, Kenanga IB; Patricia Oh Swee Ling, senior economist, AmResearch

Philippines: Alvin Ang, professor, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan L. Ravelas, FVP chief market strategist, BDO Unibank

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia; Randolph Tan Gee Kwang, associate professor, SIM University; Hayato Nakamura, senior economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

Thailand: Phacharaphot Nuntramas, head of economic and financial market research, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center; Siwat Luangsomboon, head of research group, Kasikornbank; Thammarat Kittisiripat, senior economist, KT Zmico Securities

India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets; Rajiv Kumar, senior fellow, Centre for Policy Research; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, Crisil; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; David Fernandez, head of FICC research, Asia-Pacific, Barclays; Edward Lee, head of ASEAN economic research, Standard Chartered

2020/09/07

Asian Economists Project Role for Japan in Regional Stability

New PM Must Bring Economic Recovery, Provide Model for Reform
Mixed Views on Abe Era Monetary Policy, Low Marks on Growth

JCER/Nikkei Consensus: Special Survey September 2020 issue

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA

2020/07/10

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey special web seminar

2020/07/06

All ASEAN5, India Fall into Negative Growth

COVID Uncertainty Portends Unemployment Rise, Digitalization

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies July 2020 issue 2020~2022

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2020/04/06

Negative Growth Foreseen in Singapore, Thailand

Corona Shock Hits Asia, Unemployment Rise Looms

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies April 2020 issue 2020~2022

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2019/12/23

Growth to Remain Weak in 2020 for ASEAN, India

Focus on Trade War, U.S. Election, Geopolitics

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies December 2019 issue 2019~2021

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA