ASEAN5 4.3%, India 7.7% for 2016, speed up into 2018
Setback of reforms, further China slowdown seen as big risks
New JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies
Five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and India are expected to keep current economic growth level in 2016 as the Chinese economy continues to slow down. Government spending and investment will support growth while exports remain sluggish. India, Indonesia and the Philippines are likely to grow at more than 5%. Setbacks in expectations for economic reform, the Chinese economy's further slowdown and market turmoil are seen as big risks-these are the findings of the first JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies.
The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (April 21, 2016)
◆ Main points of the survey
- The growth forecast for the ASEAN5 is 4.3% for 2016, up from 4.2% in 2015.
- The forecast is 7.7% for India for 2016/17, up from 7.5% in 2015/16.
- 2016 growth rate to increase in Indonesia, Philippines, India; down in Malaysia.
- Public spending, investment and consumption to support the economies.
- Exports remain sluggish in all countries.
- Growth rates expected to go up through 2018 for both the ASEAN5 and India.
- Further slowdown expected for China during this period.
◆ List of survey respondents
Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, department head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior economist, Center for Information and Development Studies
Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Maslynnawati Ahmad, economist, CIMB Investment Bank; Lim Chee Sing, group chief economist, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head of economic research, Kenanga IB; Patricia Oh Swee Ling, senior economist, AmResearch
Philippines: Alvin Ang, professor, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan L. Ravelas, FVP chief market strategist, BDO Unibank
Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia; Randolph Tan Gee Kwang, associate professor, SIM University; Hayato Nakamura, senior economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Thailand: Phacharaphot Nuntramas, head of economic and financial market research, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center; Siwat Luangsomboon, head of research group, Kasikornbank; Thammarat Kittisiripat, senior economist, KT Zmico Securities
India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets; Rajiv Kumar, senior fellow, Centre for Policy Research; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, Crisil; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India
For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; David Fernandez, head of FICC research, Asia-Pacific, Barclays; Edward Lee, head of ASEAN economic research, Standard Chartered
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