Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies （April 2019 issue / 2019～2021）

Outlook Down Again as Trade War Impact Spreads

Concerns Persist over U.S.-China Tensions, Markets, Politics

Project Leader：Kiyoshi KUSAKA: Guest Researcher
Project Leader：Kenji YUASA: Lead Economist

2019/04/08

Asian economists revised their growth forecasts downward again as the negative influence of the U.S.-China trade war has manifested in weakened exports throughout the region. The 2019 growth forecast for the ASEAN5 was 4.6%, marking the third consecutive downward revision since the September 2018 survey. Figures for export-oriented Thailand and Singapore were down. The Indian economy is expected to maintain growth of over 7%, but projections were revised downward for both 2019/20 and 2020/21. The softening of U.S. monetary policy may encourage new momentum for growth, but U.S.-China tensions and the slowdown of the Chinese economy persist as major risks. Political uncertainty is also seen as a risk, especially in India, Indonesia, and Thailand.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (April 8, 2019)

Consensus20190408-tableENG

◆ Main points of the survey

The weighted average of growth forecasts for ASEAN5 in 2019 was 4.6%, revised downward by 0.1 point from the previous survey in December 2018. The figure falls short of the growth rate achieved in 2018 by 0.2 points.
2019 projections were revised downward for Singapore and Thailand, due largely to weaker exports. The projection for the Philippines was also lowered, affected by the delay of budget implementation; growth outlooks for Indonesia and Malaysia remain unchanged.
Growth projections for India were 7.1% for fiscal 2018/19 and 7.2% for 2019/20, revised down by 0.2 points and 0.1 point respectively. The downward revisions reflect political uncertainty.
U.S.-China tensions over trade and high-tech issues, along with a Chinese economic slowdown, are seen as major risks. Uncertainty remains in the financial markets; political instability is seen as a key risk in India, Thailand, and Indonesia.

◆ List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, Bank Danamon Indonesia

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior manager, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic department, Kenanga Investment Bank; Anthony Dass, chief economist, AmBank Research; Manokaran Mottain, chief economist, Alliance Bank

Philippines: Alvin Ang , director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, FVP-chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist , ING Bank Philippines; Victor Abola, senior economist, University of Asia and the Pacific; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Mitzie Conchada, associate dean, De La Salle University

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank, Ltd.

Thailand: Panundorn Aruneeniramarn, assistant vice president, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, assistance managing director, Kasikorn Research Center; Thammarat Kittisiripat, senior economist, KT ZMICO Securities; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist , Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research office, CIMB Thai Bank; Naris Sathapholdeja, team head of TMB analytics, TMB Bank PCL

India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, India, National Stock Exchange of India; Shekhar Shah, director-general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER);

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank; Donald Hanna, group chief economist, CIMB Group; HSBC

2023/10/02