Trump Shock Hits Asian Economies Differently
Market volatility up, protectionism feared
Strong impact in Singapore, weaker in India, Philippines
Donald Trump's election as U.S. president has cast various doubts over Asian economies, ranging from the possibility of rising protectionism to new financial market turmoil. For now the impact differs by country. Economists revised their 2017 growth forecasts downward for four Southeast Asian countries — Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand — a response in part to the Trump factor, while the prospects were revised upward for the Philippines. India's forecast was revised downward for 2016/17, but this is due to the temporary effects of demonetization policy.
Trump-related risks are conceived differently in each country. They are taken seriously in the four nations for which forecasts were revised downward, and less seriously in India and the Philippines.
Economists see the market as more volatile than before. Market pressure toward depreciation of Asian currencies persists. Repercussions of U.S. monetary policy constitute a big risk throughout the region.
The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (December 30, 2016)
◆ Main points of the survey
- Growth forecast for the weighted average of the ASEAN5 in 2017 was revised downward from the previous survey by 0.2 points to 4.4%, as the figures for Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand were down. The figure for 2018 was revised upward by 0.2 points to 4.8%.
- Forecasts for the Philippines were revised upward through 2018 supported by strong domestic consumption and investment. The figures for 2016-2018 are 6.6-6.9%.
- The forecast for India was revised downward to 7.0% for 2016/17 as demonetization policy impacts consumption. The forecasts rise to 7.8-7.9% through fiscal 2018/19.
- Rising protectionism and other Trump-related risks are widely shared in the region. The risks are taken seriously in such countries as Singapore, which stands on open economy.
◆ List of survey respondents
Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, department head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, chairman, Center for Information and Development Studies; Yose Rizal Damuri, head of department of economics, Centre for Strategic and International Studies; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia
Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Lim Chee Sing, chief economist, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head of economic research, Kenanga IB
Philippines: Alvin Ang, director of economic research, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan L. Ravelas, FVP chief market strategist, BDO Unibank; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metropolitan Bank & Trust; Jojo Gonzales, head of research, Philippine Equity Partners; Jose Cuyegkeng, senior economist, ING Bank; Angelo Taningco, economist, Security Bank; Emilio S. Neri Jr., lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Victor A. Abola, senior economist, University of Asia and the Pacific
Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, associate professor, SIM University; Hayato Nakamura, senior economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Thailand: Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice president, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, head of research group, Kasikornbank; Thammarat Kittisiripat, vice president, KT Zmico Securities; Tim Leelahaphan, assistant vice president, Maybank Kim Eng Securities; Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya; Nalin Chutchotitham, Thiland economist, HSBC
India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, Crisil; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India; Richard Iley, chief economist emerging markets, BNP Paribas
For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; David Fernandez, managing director, Barclays Bank Singapore; Philip McNicholas, senior economist, BNP Paribas; Standard Charterd; Goldman Sachs
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