ASEAN5 Outlook Up Again, India Recovering to 7%
2018 in Focus: Elections, US Monetary Policy, Geopolitics
Following the previous survey in September, economists revised their 2017 and 2018 growth forecasts upward for major Southeast Asian countries, reflecting prolonged strong exports of electronic goods and spillover effects on domestic economies. The forecast for India in 2017/18 was downgraded once again to below 7% as the disruption accompanying the introduction of Goods and Service Taxes was heavier than expected, but the economy is regaining power and the growth rate could return to more than 7% in 2018/19. Asked what most draws their attention in 2018, economists chose general and local elections in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and India.
The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (December 26, 2017)
◆ Main points of the survey
- The weighted average of growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 in 2017 was revised upward from the previous survey by 0.2 points to 5.0%, as figures for Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand were up. This follows upward revisions in the last four surveys, following March 2017. The forecast for 2018 was also revised upward by 0.1 point to 4.9%.
- The growth estimate for India in 2017/18 was revised downward by 0.3 points to 6.7% due to a slowdown in the April-June period, attributed to temporary stagnation before the introduction of the new tax system. Figures are expected to rebound to 7.4% for 2018/19.
- Recognized risks were diverse. Political instability, U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and Chinese economic slowdown were among the major risks conceived.
◆ List of survey respondents
Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, chairman, Center for Information and Development Studies; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia
Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Donald Hanna, group chief economist, CIMB; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head, economics department, Kenanga Investment Bank
Philippines: Alvin Ang, professor, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan L. Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank; Jojo Gonzales, head of research, Philippine Equity Partners; Joey Cuyegkeng, senior economist, ING Bank; Angelo Taningco, economist, Security Bank; Emilio S. Neri Jr., lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Victor A. Abola, senior economist, University of Asia and the Pacific
Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Center for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Thailand: Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice president, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, head research, Kasikorn Research Center; Thammarat Kittisiripat, economist, KT Zmico Securities; Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai; Naris Sathapholdeja, team head of TMB Analytics, TMB Bank
India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief strategist & head of reserch, India, Mizuho Bank Limited
For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; David Fernandez, chief Asia-Pacific economist, Barclays Bank; HSBC
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