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Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies (December 2018 issue / 2018~2020)

Asian Economies Slow as Trade War Escalates

Uncertainty Dims Outlooks; Elections in Focus

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA
  Principal Economist
Project Leader:Kenji YUASA
  Lead Economist

2018/12/25

 As U.S.-China tensions over trade and high-tech issues intensified, economists in Asian countries made further downward revisions to their growth outlooks. The 2019 growth forecast of 4.7% for the ASEAN5 is down by 0.1 point from the previous survey, marking two consecutive downward revisions. The outlooks for Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand were all down due to weaker export prospects. The Indian economy is expected to maintain growth of over 7%, but projections were revised downward for 2018/19 and 2019/20. It seems that economists are increasingly prepared to voice their concerns over the negative impact of the trade war. They also note with caution the increased uncertainty in such fields as financial markets, worrying that it could hinder steady economies.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (December 27, 2018)

Consensus20181012-tableENG


 Main points of the survey

  • The weighted average of growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 in 2018 was 4.8%, revised down by 0.1 point from the September survey. The projection for 2019 was 4.7%, revised down by 0.1 point, and remaining lower than the figure for 2018.
  • 2019 projections were revised down for Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Domestic demand remains generally strong, but exports could weaken due largely to escalating U.S.-China trade war.
  • Growth projections for India marked 7.3% for both 2018/19 and 2019/20, reflecting downward revisions of 0.1 point and 0.3 points respectively.
  • Economists say their projections take downward risks into account.
  • The U.S.-China trade war, financial markets, the Chinese economy, and elections in Asian countries are major developments/events in focus for 2019.

 List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist , Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, Bank Danamon Indonesia

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic department, Kenanga Investment Bank; Anthony Dass, chief economist, AmBank Research; Manokaran Mottain, chief economist, Alliance Bank

Philippines: Alvin Ang , director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, FVP-chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Joey Cuyegkeng, senior economist , ING Bank Philippines; Emilio S. Neri Jr., vice president and lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank, Ltd.

Thailand: Krasae Rangsipol, vice president, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, assistance managing director, Kasikorn Research Center; Thammarat Kittisiripat, senior economist, KT ZMICO Securities; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist , Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research office, CIMB Thai Bank; Naris Sathapholdeja, team head of TMB analytics, TMB Bank PCL

India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief strategist and head of research, India, Mizuho Bank Limited*; Shekhar Shah, director-general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER); Aditi Nayar, principal economist, ICRA Limited;

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank

*as of December 13, 2018

Back Numbers (~Dec 2017)

2019/07/08

ASEAN Outlook Falls in 4th Consecutive Survey

Uncertainty to Persist as Impact of Trade War Spreads

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies July 2019 issue 2019~2021

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2019/04/08

Outlook Down Again as Trade War Impact Spreads

Concerns Persist over U.S.-China Tensions, Markets, Politics

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies April 2019 issue 2019~2021

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2018/12/25

Asian Economies Slow as Trade War Escalates

Uncertainty Dims Outlooks; Elections in Focus

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies December 2018 issue 2018~2020

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2018/10/09

ASEAN Forecasts Down in Trade War, Market Shocks

Economies Remain Steady; Concerns from Overseas

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies October 2018 issue 2018~2020

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2018/07/09

Economists Cautious, but Maintain Steady Forecasts

Trade War, Markets Among Rising Concerns

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies July 2018 issue2018~2020

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA