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Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies (December 2020 issue / 2020~2022)

Slow and Uncertain Recovery Ahead in 2021

Economies to Reach Pre-COVID Levels in 2022, Vaccine Key

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA
  Principal Economist
Project Leader:Kenji YUASA
  Lead Economist

2020/12/21

 Asian economists expect their economies to recover in 2021 following sharp drops in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But with the future course of efforts to contain the virus still unclear, recovery could be slow. Economists project a return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022, not 2021. Asked about topics that will impact economies in 2021, respondents point to the effectiveness and availability of COVID-19 vaccines, after-effects of pandemic-related policies including increasing public debt, and the policies of new U.S. president Joe Biden.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asia. (December 21, 2020)

AsiaSurvey202010-table-ENG

 Main points of the survey

  • The average growth forecast for the ASEAN5 for 2021 was 4.3%, turning positive from the -5.0% for 2020. Figures for both 2020 and 2021 were unchanged from the previous survey in September.
  • The Indian growth forecast for fiscal 2020/21 was revised up by 0.2 points to -8.2%. The fiscal 2021/22 figure was also revised up by 1.0 point to 9.1%.
  • The pace of economic decline is expected to ease in Q4 in all six countries. Growth figures are projected to turn positive in Q1 or Q2 2021.
  • Many economists project an uncertain road to recovery as the effectiveness and availability the COVID-19 vaccine remains unclear.
  • Projections show that most economies will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022.

 List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk.

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, KAF Research

Philippines: Alvin Ang, director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Emilio S. Neri Jr., vice president and lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Victor Abola, senior economist, University of Asia and the Pacific

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank, Ltd.

Thailand: Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, assistance managing director, Kasikorn Research Center; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank

India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Jyoti Vij, deputy secretary general, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI)

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines

2022/04/04

Concerns Shift to Ukraine War, Inflation

Recovery in Sight as COVID Infection Recedes

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies March 2022 issue 2022~2024

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2021/12/20

Signs of Upturn in Economic Outlook

Unemployment Rate to Improve, Caution over Omicron

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies December 2021 issue 2021~2023

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2021/10/04

New Virus Surge Damages Recovery Prospects Again

Supply Chain, Exports Feeling the Impact

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies September 2021 issue 2021~2023

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2021/07/05

New Infection Surge Damages Economic Prospects

All Economists Prioritize Quick Vaccination

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies June 2021 issue 2021~2023

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2021/04/05

Vaccination Rollout Impacts 2021 Projections

Outlooks Brighten for Early Adopters Singapore, Indonesia, India

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies April 2021 issue 2021~2023

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA