Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies （December 2020 issue / 2020～2022）

Slow and Uncertain Recovery Ahead in 2021

Economies to Reach Pre-COVID Levels in 2022, Vaccine Key

Project Leader：Kiyoshi KUSAKA: Guest Researcher
Project Leader：Kenji YUASA: Lead Economist

2020/12/21

Asian economists expect their economies to recover in 2021 following sharp drops in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But with the future course of efforts to contain the virus still unclear, recovery could be slow. Economists project a return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022, not 2021. Asked about topics that will impact economies in 2021, respondents point to the effectiveness and availability of COVID-19 vaccines, after-effects of pandemic-related policies including increasing public debt, and the policies of new U.S. president Joe Biden.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asia. (December 21, 2020)

AsiaSurvey202010-table-ENG

◆ Main points of the survey

The average growth forecast for the ASEAN5 for 2021 was 4.3%, turning positive from the -5.0% for 2020. Figures for both 2020 and 2021 were unchanged from the previous survey in September.
The Indian growth forecast for fiscal 2020/21 was revised up by 0.2 points to -8.2%. The fiscal 2021/22 figure was also revised up by 1.0 point to 9.1%.
The pace of economic decline is expected to ease in Q4 in all six countries. Growth figures are projected to turn positive in Q1 or Q2 2021.
Many economists project an uncertain road to recovery as the effectiveness and availability the COVID-19 vaccine remains unclear.
Projections show that most economies will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022.

◆ List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk.

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, KAF Research

Philippines: Alvin Ang, director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Emilio S. Neri Jr., vice president and lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Victor Abola, senior economist, University of Asia and the Pacific

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank, Ltd.

Thailand: Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, assistance managing director, Kasikorn Research Center; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank

India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Jyoti Vij, deputy secretary general, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI)

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines

2023/04/03