Growth to Remain Weak in 2020 for ASEAN, India
Focus on Trade War, U.S. Election, Geopolitics
Following the sudden deceleration of 2019, growth outlooks for Asian economies in 2020 remain weak as the U.S.-China trade war continues. The 2019 growth forecast for the ASEAN5 was 3.9%, down by 0.2 points from the previous survey in September. The 2020 forecast rose slightly, but remained much lower than the 4.8% recorded in 2018. India’s projection for fiscal 2019/20 was 5.0%, revised downward by 1.1 points from the previous survey, and falling sharply from the 6.8% achieved in 2018/19, due in part to trouble in the financial sectors. Looking forward to 2020, economists list the U.S.-China tensions, U.S. presidential election, Chinese economic slowdown, and geopolitical risks as factors affecting the global economy. For their own economies, respondents focus on reform and political developments, among other issues.
The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (December 25, 2019)
◆ Main points of the survey
- The weighted average of growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 in 2019 was 3.9%, revised downward by 0.2 points from the September survey. The figure is 0.9 points lower that the growth rate achieved in 2018. The forecast for 2020 was 4.2%.
- In all five countries 2019 projections fall short of the figures recorded in 2018. The drops are especially notable in export-oriented Singapore and Thailand.
- The Indian growth projection for fiscal 2019/20 was 5.0%, down by 1.1 point from the previous survey. The forecast reflects domestic financial problems as well as global economic slowdown. The 2020/21 projection held firm at 6.1%.
- Many economists view U.S.-China tension and trade war as a factor set to influence the global economy in 2020. Politics, economic reforms, infrastructure development, and trouble in financial sectors are among the issues in focus for each economy.
◆ List of survey respondents
Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, Bank Danamon Indonesia
Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Anthony Dass, chief economist, AmBank Research; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, KAF Research; Lee Heng Guie, executive director, Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC)
Philippines: Alvin Ang , director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines; Emilio S. Neri Jr., vice president and lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Victor Abola, senior economist, University of Asia and the Pacific; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines
Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank, Ltd.
Thailand: Panundorn Aruneeniramarn, assistant vice president, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, assistance managing director, Kasikorn Research Center; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist , Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank; Naris Sathapholdeja, head of TMB analytics, TMB Bank PCL
India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Shekhar Shah, director-general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank; Donald Hanna, group chief economist, CIMB Group; Debapriya Mukherjee, principal economist, asia paciffic, IHS Markit*
*as of December 11, 2019
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