Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies （July 2016 issue /2016～2018）

Growth revised down; Brexit adds uncertainty

Market risks increase, China fears persist
Philippine president: infrastructure a priority

Project Leader：Kiyoshi KUSAKA: Guest Researcher
Project Leader：Kenji YUASA: Lead Economist

2016/07/13

Economists revised down their forecasts on growth for several Asian countries for 2016 and beyond, as the referendum in the U.K. on remaining in the European Union, known as Brexit, was won by the leave camp. Financial turmoil and other market-related risks have become the major concerns for economists, followed by the possibility of a Chinese economic slowdown. Expectations are high for Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who has promised to prioritize infrastructure development after winning a May election.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (July 14, 2016)

Consensus201607-tableENG

◆ Main points of the survey

Growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 were revised down for 2017 and 2018, when compared with the March survey, in part due to the impact of the Brexit vote.
Forecasts for Indian growth are 7.7-7.9% for 2016/17, 17/18 and 18/19.
Financial market turmoil is conceived as the biggest economic risk in the coming 12 months in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and India. Other market-related risks are also a major concern in all six countries.
A Chinese economic slowdown continues to be seen as a big risk.
The growth forecast for the Philippines for 2016 is revised up 0.3 percentage point to 6.4%, reflecting optimism about new President Rodrigo Duterte. The top priority for his administration is infrastructure development.

Note: Not all forecasts were revised after the Brexit vote.

◆ List of survey respondents

Indonesia: uniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, department head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, chairman, Center for Information and Development Studies

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Lim Chee Sing, group chief economist, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head of economic research, Kenanga IB

Philippines: Alvin Ang, professor, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan L. Ravelas, FVP chief market strategist, BDO Unibank; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metropolitan Bank & Trust

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, associate professor, SIM University; Hayato Nakamura, senior economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

Thailand: Phacharaphot Nuntramas, head of economic and financial market research, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, head of research group, Kasikornbank; Thammarat Kittisiripat, senior economist, KT Zmico Securities

India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets; Rajiv Kumar, senior fellow, Centre for Policy Research; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, Crisil; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; David Fernandez, managing director, Barclays Bank Singapore

2023/10/02