Growth Prospects Steady as Trump Risks Recede
Amid Range of Concerns, Attention Turns to Geopolitics
Economists predict continued steady growth for 2017 and beyond, keeping forecasts for major Southeast Asian countries and India near the same levels as in the previous survey conducted in March. Concerns over protectionism and other risks linked to U.S. President Trump persist, but appear less urgent than before. Economists increasingly focus on strong growth potentiality in Asian economies, although attention has broadened to new risks, including terrorism and geopolitical risks.
The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (July 11, 2017)
◆ Main points of the survey
- The weighted average of growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 in 2017 was revised upward from the previous survey by 0.1 points to 4.6%, as figures for Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand were up. Recent increases in exports underpin this rise. Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to grow at high levels in 2017, coming in at 5.2% and 6.4% respectively.
- The estimate for India for 2017/18 was unchanged at 7.4%, up from the 7.1% achieved in 2016/17. High growth rates of over 7.5% are expected through 2019/20.
- JCER has introduced a new metric, the JCER Risk Signal, to describe how various risks are conceived by economists. Rising protectionism is recognized as a risk at the level of “caution” (yellow) in Singapore.
◆ List of survey respondents
Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, chairman, Center for Information and Development Studies; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia
Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Lim Chee Sing, chief economist, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head, economics department, Kenanga IB
Philippines: Alvin Ang, director of economic research, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan L. Ravelas, FVP chief market strategist, BDO Unibank; Jojo Gonzales, head of research, Philippine Equity Partners; David Fernandez, chief Asia-Pacific economist, Barclays Bank; Pauline May Ann E. Revillas, research analyst, Metropolitan Bank & Trust; Jose Cuyegkeng, senior economist, ING Bank; Angelo Taningco, economist, Security Bank
Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, associate professor, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; Dennis Tan, strategist, Barclays Bank
Thailand: Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice president, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, head of research group, Kasikornbank; Thammarat Kittisiripat, vice president, KT Zmico Securities; Tim Leelahaphan, assistant vice president, Maybank Kim Eng Securities; Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya
India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets; Rajiv Kumar, founder director, Pahle India Foundation; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, Assistant General Manager, chief strategist & head of reserch, India, Mizuho Bank Limited; Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist, Barclays Bank; Anubhuti Sahay, head, south asia economic research (India), Standard Charterd
For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore ; Rahul Bajoria, economist, Barclays Bank; Edward Lee, Head of regional research, ASEAN, Standard Charterd; Arup Raha, group chief economist, CIMB Group; Goldman Sachs; HSBC
El Niño Influences Forecasts; One More Fed Hike on the Horizon
JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies September 2023 issue 2023～2025
Chinese Downturn Threatens; U.S. Rate Hikes Persist
JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies June 2023 issue 2023～2025
China Ends Restrictions; U.S. Financial Turmoil
JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies March 2023 issue 2023～2025
Central Banks to Follow Fed in Stopping Rate Hikes
JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies December 2022 issue 2022～2024
2023 Forecast Revised Down, Growing Concerns on China
JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies September 2022 issue 2022～2024