Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies （July 2019 issue / 2019～2021）

ASEAN Outlook Falls in 4th Consecutive Survey

Uncertainty to Persist as Impact of Trade War Spreads

Project Leader：Kiyoshi KUSAKA: Guest Researcher
Project Leader：Kenji YUASA: Lead Economist

2019/07/08

Asian economists once again revised their growth forecasts downward as the U.S.-China trade war incited negative developments, including decreasing exports, throughout the region. The 2019 growth forecast for the ASEAN5 was 4.3%, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision since the September 2018 survey. The Indian economy in fiscal 2019/20 is expected to maintain growth of nearly 7%, but the projection was revised downward due in part to the slowdown of the global economy. Economists find no consensus on the future course of the U.S.-China tensions, but many agree that the conflict will not be easily resolved, and that uncertainty will persist. Economists in all six countries regarded “U.S.-China tensions” as the greatest risk for their economies.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (July 9, 2019)

Consensus20190708-tableENG

◆ Main points of the survey

The weighted average of growth forecasts for the ASEAN5 in 2019 was 4.3%, revised downward by 0.3 points from the March survey. This marks the fourth consecutive downward revision since the Sept. 2018 survey, and the greatest drop over the same period.
2019 projections were lowered for all five ASEAN countries, due largely to the deceleration of exports and the slowdown of the world economy. Both developments were triggered by the U.S.-China conflict.
The growth projection for India for fiscal 2019/20 was 6.9%, revised down by 0.2 points from the previous survey. An ailing domestic financial sector, uncertain weather, and the global economic slowdown factor into the sub-7% growth projection.
Economists in all six countries regard “U.S.-China tensions over trade and high-tech issues” as the leading risk. Political uncertainty in India, Indonesia, and other countries has diminished.

◆ List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, Bank Danamon Indonesia

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Anthony Dass, chief economist, AmBank Research; Manokaran Mottain, chief economist, Alliance Bank

Philippines: Alvin Ang , director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Emilio S. Neri Jr., vice president and lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Mitzie Conchada, associate dean, De La Salle University

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank, Ltd.

Thailand: Panundorn Aruneeniramarn, assistant vice president, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, assistance managing director, Kasikorn Research Center; Thammarat Kittisiripat, senior economist, KT ZMICO Securities; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist , Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank; Naris Sathapholdeja, head of TMB analytics, TMB Bank PCL

India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Shekhar Shah, director-general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER); Dilip Chenoy, secretary general, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FCCI)

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank; Donald Hanna, group chief economist, CIMB Group

2023/04/03