All ASEAN5, India Fall into Negative Growth
COVID Uncertainty Portends Unemployment Rise, Digitalization
The outlook for Asian economies has greatly deteriorated due to the impact of the corona shock. With the ongoing spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), Asian economists have drastically lowered their growth outlooks. Some projections see negative growth rates for 2020 in Singapore and Thailand. Likewise Indonesia, the Philippines, and India face the end of several years of rapid growth at about 5% or more. Further downward revisions are expected if the virus is not contained. An increase in unemployment is projected throughout the region, and economists express concern about its potential social impact.
The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (July 7,2020)
◆ Main points of the survey
- Growth forecasts for five ASEAN countries and India were drastically lowered from the previous survey in March.
- The average growth projection for April-June for the ASEAN5 was lowered by 9.7 points from the March survey to -7.8%. The 2020 projection for ASEAN5 was revised down by 6.0 points to -3.3%. Annual forecasts for all five ASEAN countries are subzero.
- The Indian growth forecast for April-June is -20.6%, down 24.8 points from the previous survey. The figure is -5.1% for fiscal 2020/21, down 10.2 points from the March survey.
- Unemployment rates have already risen significantly across the region in Q2. They are expected to increase or remain high throughout the year.
- Accelerated digitalization, increased launching and failing of companies, headwinds for tourism, and other structural changes are expected to follow the corona shock.
◆ List of survey respondents
Indonesia: Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, Bank Danamon Indonesia
Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, KAF Research
Philippines: Alvin Ang, director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Jojo Gonzales, managing director, Philippine Equity Partners Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Mitzie Conchada, associate dean, school of economics, De La Salle University
Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Yuma Tsuchiya, senior economist, MUFG Bank, Ltd.
Thailand: Panundorn Aruneeniramarn, assistant vice president, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Lalita Thienprasiddhi, senior reseacher, Kasikorn Research Center; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist , Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank; Naris Sathapholdeja, head of TMB analytics, TMB Bank PCL
India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Jyoti Vij, deputy secretary general, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI)
For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Rahul Bajoria, director, regional economist, Barclays Bank
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