Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies （June 2021 issue /2021～2023）

New Infection Surge Damages Economic Prospects

All Economists Prioritize Quick Vaccination

Project Leader：Masashi UEHARA: Principal Economist
Project Leader：Kenji YUASA: Lead Economist

2021/07/05

The Japan Center for Economic Research and Nikkei conducted the twenty-second quarterly consensus survey on Asian economies from June 5 to 24, collecting 31 answers from economists and analysts in the five biggest members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—and in ew surge of COVID-19 cases in the second quarter of 2021 damaged recovery prospects in most countries. The average growth rate of the five ASEAN countries in 2021 was 4.1%, down 0.2 points from the previous survey. That of India in fiscal 2021 (2021/2022) fell more severely, by 1.5 points to 9.7%.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asia. (July 5, 2021)

PDFConsensus June 2021 Survey Full Text

AsiaSurvey202010-table-ENG

◆ Main points of the survey

A new surge of COVID-19 cases in the second quarter of 2021 damaged recovery prospects in most countries. The average growth rate of the five ASEAN countries in 2021 was 4.1%, down 0.2 points from the previous survey. That of India in fiscal 2021 (2021/2022) fell more severely, by 1.5 points to 9.7%.
Malaysia’s growth rate in 2021 was down 1.2 points to 4.1%, the sharpest downward revision after India. The Philippines and Thailand also followed the downward trend, but both have fared better than Malaysia in terms of new infection cases.
Exceptions are Indonesia and Singapore. In Indonesia, which seems comparatively successful in containing COVID-19, recovery of consumption will drive the economy. In Singapore, recovery of exports supported by a global demand surge will help economic growth.
“Corona shock” still lingers as the largest risk facing the Asian economy. All economists agree on quick vaccination as the most important measure to effectively contain the spread of COVID-19.
Many economists identified “Inflation” and “U.S. monetary policy” as the next-greatest risk factors after “Corona shock.” U.S. monetary policy has great influence on both currency exchange rates and policy interest rates in Asian countries.

◆ List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk.; Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, KAF Research

Philippines: Alvin Ang, director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Mitzie Conchada, associate dean, school of economics, De La Salle University

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences

Thailand: Panundorn Aruneeniramarn, assistant vice president, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Lalita Thienprasiddhi, senior resercher, Kasikorn Research Center; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank

India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Jyoti Vij, deputy secretary general, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI); Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, Confederation of Indian Industry

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines

2023/04/03