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Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies (June 2021 issue /2021~2023)

New Infection Surge Damages Economic Prospects

All Economists Prioritize Quick Vaccination

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA
  Principal Economist
Project Leader:Kenji YUASA
  Lead Economist

2021/07/05

 The Japan Center for Economic Research and Nikkei conducted the twenty-second quarterly consensus survey on Asian economies from June 5 to 24, collecting 31 answers from economists and analysts in the five biggest members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—and in ew surge of COVID-19 cases in the second quarter of 2021 damaged recovery prospects in most countries. The average growth rate of the five ASEAN countries in 2021 was 4.1%, down 0.2 points from the previous survey. That of India in fiscal 2021 (2021/2022) fell more severely, by 1.5 points to 9.7%.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asia. (July 5, 2021)

AsiaSurvey202010-table-ENG

 Main points of the survey

  • A new surge of COVID-19 cases in the second quarter of 2021 damaged recovery prospects in most countries. The average growth rate of the five ASEAN countries in 2021 was 4.1%, down 0.2 points from the previous survey. That of India in fiscal 2021 (2021/2022) fell more severely, by 1.5 points to 9.7%.
  • Malaysia’s growth rate in 2021 was down 1.2 points to 4.1%, the sharpest downward revision after India. The Philippines and Thailand also followed the downward trend, but both have fared better than Malaysia in terms of new infection cases.
  • Exceptions are Indonesia and Singapore. In Indonesia, which seems comparatively successful in containing COVID-19, recovery of consumption will drive the economy. In Singapore, recovery of exports supported by a global demand surge will help economic growth.
  • “Corona shock” still lingers as the largest risk facing the Asian economy. All economists agree on quick vaccination as the most important measure to effectively contain the spread of COVID-19.
  • Many economists identified “Inflation” and “U.S. monetary policy” as the next-greatest risk factors after “Corona shock.” U.S. monetary policy has great influence on both currency exchange rates and policy interest rates in Asian countries.

 List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Man diri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Wisnu Wardana, economist, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk.; Juniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, KAF Research

Philippines: Alvin Ang, director, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist, BDO Unibank Inc.; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metrobank; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Mitzie Conchada, associate dean, school of economics, De La Salle University

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences

Thailand: Panundorn Aruneeniramarn, assistant vice president, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Lalita Thienprasiddhi, senior resercher, Kasikorn Research Center; Somprawin Manprasert, head of research division and chief economist, Bank of Ayudhya PCL; Amonthep Chawla, head of research, CIMB Thai Bank

India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Sonal Varma, India chief economist, Nomura India; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Jyoti Vij, deputy secretary general, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI); Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, Confederation of Indian Industry

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines

2021/10/04

New Virus Surge Damages Recovery Prospects Again

Supply Chain, Exports Feeling the Impact

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies September 2021 issue 2021~2023

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2021/07/05

New Infection Surge Damages Economic Prospects

All Economists Prioritize Quick Vaccination

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies June 2021 issue 2021~2023

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2021/04/05

Vaccination Rollout Impacts 2021 Projections

Outlooks Brighten for Early Adopters Singapore, Indonesia, India

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies April 2021 issue 2021~2023

Project Leader:Masashi UEHARA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2020/12/21

Slow and Uncertain Recovery Ahead in 2021

Economies to Reach Pre-COVID Levels in 2022, Vaccine Key

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies December 2020 issue 2020~2022

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA

2020/10/05

Outlooks Lowered Again as Pandemic Continues

Experts Urge Proper Infection Control, Income Aid to Save Economy

JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies October 2020 issue 2020~2022

Project Leader:Kiyoshi KUSAKA/ Project Leader:Kenji YUASA