Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies （June 2023 issue /2023～2025）

Concerns for Late 2023 amid Global Decline

Chinese Downturn Threatens; U.S. Rate Hikes Persist

Project Leader：Masashi UEHARA: Principal Economist
Project Leader：Kenji YUASA: Lead Economist

2023/07/03

The Japan Center for Economic Research and Nikkei conducted the thirtieth quarterly consensus survey on Asian economies from June 2 to 23, asking about the economic outlook for 2023-2025. It collected 39 answers from economists and analysts in the five largest members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—and in India.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asia. (July 2, 2023)
The Special Question: Economists: Generative AI Could Boost Productivity

PDFConsensus June 2023 Survey Full Text

AsiaSurvey202209-table-ENG

◆ Main points of the survey

The projected economic growth rate for the five ASEAN countries in 2023 has been revised to 4.2%, down 0.2 points from the previous survey. This downward revision is mainly attributed to Singapore and Indonesia. Economic downturn in China, a key export destination for ASEAN, is the subject of rising concern. Most economists report that a global economic downturn could negatively impact growth in the latter half of the year.
India, with its relatively low dependence on China, has revised its growth forecast for fiscal year 2023/2024 (April 2023-March 2024) upward by 0.1 point to 6.1%. While the Indian economy shares growing concerns about global economic slowdown, post-COVID-19 recovery momentum remains strong.
Economists continue to rank U.S.-related risks among the top risk factors for the coming year. Compared with the previous survey, however, there is a noticeable uptick in concern regarding a “Chinese economy slowdown.” The U.S. is nearing the peak of its interest rate hikes. China sparked high expectations for recovery when it withdrew from its zero-COVID policy in December of 2022, but recovery has not been as robust as anticipated.

◆ List of survey respondents

Indonesia: Dendi Ramdani, head of industry and regional research department, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, senior fellow, The Habibie Center; Josua Pardede, chief economist, Permata Bank;

Malaysia: Wan Suhaimie bin Wan Mohd Saidie, head, economic research, Kenanga Investment Bank; Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist, KAF Research; Mohd Sedek Jantan, head of wealth research & advisory, UOB Kay Hian Securities

Philippines: Ina Judith Clabio, research and business analytics officer, Metrobank; Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of the Philippines; Mitzie Conchada, associate dean, school of economics, De La Salle University; Emilio S. Neri Jr., vice president and lead economist, Bank of the Philippine Islands

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, director, Centre for Applied Research, Singapore University of Social Sciences; Song Seng Wun, director, CIMB Bank; Alvin Liew, senior economist, UOB Group

Thailand: Poonyawat Sreesing, senior economist, Siam Commercial Bank – Economic Intelligence Center; Lalita Thienprasiddhi, senior resercher, Kasikorn Research Center; Krungsri Research Team, Bank of Ayudhya;

India: Punit Srivastava, head of research, Daiwa Capital Markets India; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL; Tirthankar Patnaik, chief economist, National Stock Exchange of India; Aurodeep Nandi, India economist, Nomura India; Bidisha Ganguly, chief economist, Confederation of Indian Industry

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, chief economist, Nomura Singapore; Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist, Maybank Investment Banking Group; Nicholas Mapa, senior economist, ING Bank Philippines; Brian Tan, Regional economist, VP, Barclays Bank, Singapore; Shreya Sodhani, regional economist, Barclays Bank, Singapore

2023/10/02