Asia Consensus Survey JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies （October 2016 issue /2016～2018）

India grows around 8% through 2018/19

ASEAN5 maintain gradual rise; 4.4-4.7% in 2016-18
Markets, Chinese slowdown main risks

Project Leader：Kiyoshi KUSAKA: Principal Economist
Project Leader：Kenji YUASA: Lead Economist

2016/10/11

Economists foresee high growth at 7.7-8.1% for the coming three fiscal years for India. It is partly backed by the expectation for continuing economic reforms including the introduction of the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The economic prospects for major Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries vary by country, but the economy of ASEAN5 as a whole is expected to continue moderate growth. With increased uncertainty in politics and economy after the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union, known as Brexit, market-related events including new financial turmoil and the repercussions of U.S. monetary policy are seen as big risks. The slowdown of the Chinese economy is also seen as a worry.

The outcome of this survey was also reported at Nikkei Asian Review. (October 12, 2016)

Consensus201610-tableENG

◆ Main points of the survey

Growth forecasts for ASEAN5 for 2016 and 2017 stay at 4.4% and 4.7% respectively, almost the same levels as the June survey. The forecast for 2018 was revised down as the figures decreased for Malaysia and Indonesia.
Forecasts for the Philippines were revised up for 2016 and 2017. Figures were revised down for Malaysia for 2016, 2017 and 2018.
Growth Forecasts for India are more than 7.7% for the coming three fiscal years. It is 8.1% for fiscal 2018/19. Economists foresee GST, to be introduced in years, pushing economic reforms forward in the medium and long terms.
Market-related risks, including effects of U.S. monetary policy, and Chinese economy slowdown are considered big risks in the next 12 months for all nations surveyed.

◆ List of survey respondents

Indonesia: uniman, chief economist, Maybank Indonesia; Dendi Ramdani, department head of industry and regional research, Bank Mandiri; Umar Juoro, chairman, Center for Information and Development Studies

Malaysia: Suhaimi Ilias, group chief economist, Maybank Investment Bank; Lim Chee Sing, group chief economist, RHB Research Institute; Wan Suhaimie Saidie, head of economic research, Kenanga IB

Philippines: Alvin Ang, professor, Ateneo de Manila University; Jonathan L. Ravelas, FVP chief market strategist, BDO Unibank; Pauline Revillas, research analyst, Metropolitan Bank & Trust

Singapore: Manu Bhaskaran, CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors; Randolph Tan, associate professor, SIM University; Hayato Nakamura, senior economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

Thailand: Phacharaphot Nuntramas, head of economic and financial market research, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center; Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, head of research group, Kasikornbank; Thammarat Kittisiripat, senior economist, KT Zmico Securities

India: Kentaro Konishi, president and CEO, Daiwa Capital Markets; Rajiv Kumar, senior fellow, Centre for Policy Research; Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, Crisil; Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India

For multiple countries: Euben Paracuelles, senior economist, Nomura Singapore; David Fernandez, managing director, Barclays Bank Singapore

2020/12/21